Calculating The Fair Value Of Fujian Zitian Media Technology Co., Ltd. (SZSE:300280)

Key Insights

• The projected fair value for Fujian Zitian Media Technology is CN¥13.73 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• With CN¥16.46 share price, Fujian Zitian Media Technology appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value
• Industry average of 595% suggests Fujian Zitian Media Technology's peers are currently trading at a higher premium to fair value

Does the October share price for Fujian Zitian Media Technology Co., Ltd. (SZSE:300280) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Check out our latest analysis for Fujian Zitian Media Technology

Step By Step Through The Calculation

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions)	CN¥115.8m	CN¥118.8m	CN¥121.9m	CN¥125.2m	CN¥128.7m	CN¥132.3m	CN¥136.0m	CN¥139.8m	CN¥143.7m	CN¥147.8m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Est @ 2.44%	Est @ 2.56%	Est @ 2.65%	Est @ 2.71%	Est @ 2.75%	Est @ 2.78%	Est @ 2.80%	Est @ 2.82%	Est @ 2.83%	Est @ 2.83%
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 8.0%	CN¥107	CN¥102	CN¥96.8	CN¥92.0	CN¥87.5	CN¥83.3	CN¥79.3	CN¥75.5	CN¥71.8	CN¥68.4

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥864m

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.9%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 8.0%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₄ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥148m× (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (8.0%– 2.9%) = CN¥2.9b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= CN¥2.9b÷ ( 1 + 8.0%)¹⁰= CN¥1.4b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is CN¥2.2b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of CN¥16.5, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

The Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Fujian Zitian Media Technology as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.0%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.037. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Fujian Zitian Media Technology

Next Steps:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Fujian Zitian Media Technology, we've compiled three important aspects you should look at:

1. Risks: Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Fujian Zitian Media Technology you should know about.
2. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
3. Other Environmentally-Friendly Companies: Concerned about the environment and think consumers will buy eco-friendly products more and more? Browse through our interactive list of companies that are thinking about a greener future to discover some stocks you may not have thought of!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Chinese stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.