Investors three-year losses continue as Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical (SZSE:002900) dips a further 11% this week, earnings continue to decline

Simply Wall St · 10/15 23:48

Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002900) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 14% in the last month. But over the last three years we've seen a quite serious decline. Regrettably, the share price slid 61% in that period. So it's good to see it climbing back up. While many would remain nervous, there could be further gains if the business can put its best foot forward.

If the past week is anything to go by, investor sentiment for Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical isn't positive, so let's see if there's a mismatch between fundamentals and the share price.

See our latest analysis for Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical saw its EPS decline at a compound rate of 56% per year, over the last three years. This fall in the EPS is worse than the 27% compound annual share price fall. This suggests that the market retains some optimism around long term earnings stability, despite past EPS declines. This positive sentiment is also reflected in the generous P/E ratio of 59.20.

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
SZSE:002900 Earnings Per Share Growth October 15th 2024

Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical, it has a TSR of -58% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

While the broader market lost about 0.6% in the twelve months, Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical shareholders did even worse, losing 29% (even including dividends). Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 4% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Take risks, for example - Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical has 3 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of undervalued companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.