Estimating The Fair Value Of DuZhe Publish&Media Co.,Ltd (SHSE:603999)

Key Insights

• The projected fair value for DuZhe Publish&MediaLtd is CN¥5.51 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• DuZhe Publish&MediaLtd's CN¥5.47 share price indicates it is trading at similar levels as its fair value estimate
• Peers of DuZhe Publish&MediaLtd are currently trading on average at a 1,446% premium

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of DuZhe Publish&Media Co.,Ltd (SHSE:603999) by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.

We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for DuZhe Publish&MediaLtd

The Model

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions)	CN¥160.3m	CN¥156.4m	CN¥155.0m	CN¥155.4m	CN¥157.1m	CN¥159.5m	CN¥162.7m	CN¥166.3m	CN¥170.3m	CN¥174.7m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Est @ -4.70%	Est @ -2.43%	Est @ -0.85%	Est @ 0.26%	Est @ 1.04%	Est @ 1.58%	Est @ 1.96%	Est @ 2.23%	Est @ 2.41%	Est @ 2.55%
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 7.2%	CN¥149	CN¥136	CN¥126	CN¥118	CN¥111	CN¥105	CN¥99.9	CN¥95.3	CN¥91.0	CN¥87.1

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥1.1b

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.9%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 7.2%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₄ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥175m× (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (7.2%– 2.9%) = CN¥4.1b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= CN¥4.1b÷ ( 1 + 7.2%)¹⁰= CN¥2.1b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥3.2b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of CN¥5.5, the company appears about fair value at a 0.6% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

The Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at DuZhe Publish&MediaLtd as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.876. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for DuZhe Publish&MediaLtd

Looking Ahead:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For DuZhe Publish&MediaLtd, there are three pertinent elements you should consider:

1. Risks: Be aware that DuZhe Publish&MediaLtd is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
2. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
3. Other Top Analyst Picks: Interested to see what the analysts are thinking? Take a look at our interactive list of analysts' top stock picks to find out what they feel might have an attractive future outlook!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Chinese stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.