Are Investors Undervaluing Zhejiang Xinao Textiles Inc. (SHSE:603889) By 43%?

Key Insights

• Zhejiang Xinao Textiles' estimated fair value is CN¥12.22 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• Current share price of CN¥6.96 suggests Zhejiang Xinao Textiles is potentially 43% undervalued
• Analyst price target for 603889 is CN¥8.74 which is 29% below our fair value estimate

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Zhejiang Xinao Textiles Inc. (SHSE:603889) by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.

We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for Zhejiang Xinao Textiles

Crunching The Numbers

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions)	CN¥351.0m	CN¥467.0m	CN¥522.5m	CN¥570.5m	CN¥612.0m	CN¥648.5m	CN¥681.0m	CN¥710.8m	CN¥738.6m	CN¥765.2m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Est @ 11.89%	Est @ 9.18%	Est @ 7.28%	Est @ 5.95%	Est @ 5.02%	Est @ 4.37%	Est @ 3.91%	Est @ 3.59%
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 9.1%	CN¥322	CN¥392	CN¥402	CN¥402	CN¥396	CN¥384	CN¥370	CN¥354	CN¥337	CN¥320

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥3.7b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.9%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 9.1%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₄ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥765m× (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (9.1%– 2.9%) = CN¥13b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= CN¥13b÷ ( 1 + 9.1%)¹⁰= CN¥5.3b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥8.9b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of CN¥7.0, the company appears quite undervalued at a 43% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

The Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Zhejiang Xinao Textiles as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.1%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.258. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Zhejiang Xinao Textiles

Looking Ahead:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For Zhejiang Xinao Textiles, we've put together three pertinent aspects you should further examine:

1. Risks: Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Zhejiang Xinao Textiles you should be aware of.
2. Future Earnings: How does 603889's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SHSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.