Audinate Group Limited's (ASX:AD8) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 75% Above Its Share Price

Key Insights

• Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Audinate Group fair value estimate is AU$18.46
• Audinate Group is estimated to be 43% undervalued based on current share price of AU$10.52
• Our fair value estimate is 48% higher than Audinate Group's analyst price target of AU$12.45

Does the October share price for Audinate Group Limited (ASX:AD8) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for Audinate Group

The Method

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034
Levered FCF (A$, Millions)	AU$22.0m	AU$26.4m	AU$30.0m	AU$41.0m	AU$56.0m	AU$66.6m	AU$75.9m	AU$83.9m	AU$90.7m	AU$96.4m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x1	Analyst x2	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Est @ 18.93%	Est @ 13.98%	Est @ 10.51%	Est @ 8.08%	Est @ 6.38%
Present Value (A$, Millions) Discounted @ 6.8%	AU$20.6	AU$23.1	AU$24.6	AU$31.5	AU$40.3	AU$44.8	AU$47.8	AU$49.5	AU$50.0	AU$49.8

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = AU$382m

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.4%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 6.8%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₄ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = AU$96m× (1 + 2.4%) ÷ (6.8%– 2.4%) = AU$2.2b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= AU$2.2b÷ ( 1 + 6.8%)¹⁰= AU$1.2b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is AU$1.5b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of AU$10.5, the company appears quite undervalued at a 43% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

The Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Audinate Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.8%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.071. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Audinate Group

Moving On:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For Audinate Group, there are three additional items you should look at:

1. Risks: Be aware that Audinate Group is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
2. Future Earnings: How does AD8's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Australian stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.