Soybeans Pull Off Lows Following NOPA Release

Soybeans are getting a midday bounce, with contracts off the lows but still down 5 to 9 cents. CmdtyView’s national front month Cash Bean price was down 5 1/2 cents at $9.29 ¼. Soymeal futures are down $3.80/ton on the day. Soy Oil contracts are up 66 points on the session. The average close for November soybean futures, which indicates the fall crop insurance price, so far this month is $10.28. That is $1.27 below the February base price.

USDA reported a private export sale of 131,000 MT of soybeans to China for 2024/25 this morning vis their daily reporting system.

The delayed Export Inspections report indicated a total of 1.575 MMT (57.89 mbu) of soybeans shipped in the week of October 10. That was down 25.3% from last year and a slight drop from last week. Of that total, 1.072 MMT was headed China, with just over 88,000 MT headed to Mexico and Egypt each. Marketing year sales were at 5.13 MMT (1885 mbu) by that date, which is down 6.8% from the same point last year. 

NOPA’s monthly report showed September crush totaling 177.32 mbu, which was ~7 mbu above the trade estimates coming in. That was a September record and up 7.17% from last year’s Sep record, as well as 12.22% larger than the August total. Soybean oil stocks came just below estimates at 1.066 billion lbs for September 30, which was down 3.74% from last year and a draw of 6.34% from August despite the larger production. 

Initial CONAB estimates were released this morning, showing the 2024/25 soybean crop estimated at 166.05 MMT. That is shy of the current 169 MMT USDA number but up 18.67 MMT from their estimate for the 2023/24 crop.

The US soybean harvest is estimated to be 67% harvested as of October 13 ahead of the weekly Crop Progress report.

Nov 24 Soybeans  are at $9.90 1/2, down 5 1/2 cents,

Nearby Cash  is at $9.29 1/4, down 5 1/2 cents,

Jan 25 Soybeans  are at $10.03 1/2, down 8 cents,

May 25 Soybeans  are at $10.30, down 9 1/4 cents,

On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.