LegalShield Index: Financial Stress Up, Battleground States Signal Close Presidential Race

Barchart · 10/15 10:02

The LegalShield Consumer Stress Legal Index (CSLI), a study that tracks about 150,000 calls per month from everyday Americans seeking legal help, rose in September, marking the third consecutive monthly increase on the heels of a 22-year record surge in July.

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Legal Stress Index Climbs for 3rd Month; Battleground States Mirror Tight Race. (Graphic: Business Wire)

Legal Stress Index Climbs for 3rd Month; Battleground States Mirror Tight Race. (Graphic: Business Wire)

Stress in battleground states held steady, slipping just below the national average after rising just above in August. The movement of the two stress trendlines indicates a tight presidential race.

"Consumer financial strain nationwide has continued to escalate following an unprecedented surge in July, indicating consumers are still facing pocketbook challenges,” said Matt Layton, LegalShield senior vice president of consumer analytics. "Economic factors significantly influence election outcomes. In the last five presidential races, our predictive data has crystallized by October. As of now, our analysis indicates the race is too close to call."

LegalShield’s September CSLI rose to 68.0, 0.3 points higher than August and up 4.0% year over year.

Battleground Stress Points to Close White House Race

“This close to the election, stress in battleground states is tracking tighter to the national stress level than we’ve seen since the inception of our index in 2002,” said Layton. “Battleground stress has hovered just above and below the national index on a razor thin margin for the past three months.”

In each presidential election year since 2004, when battleground states exhibited higher stress in October and November compared to the national average, a Republican was elected. When battleground states exhibited lower stress than the nation, a Democrat won.

“It’s important to remember that our data is based on actual calls by everyday Americans seeking legal help on a range of financial issues,” said Layton. “This is not a poll swayed by debates or headlines.”

Layton continued: “We’ve seen an 11-percent increase since June in the Consumer Finance subindex for the battleground states. That’s a sign that folks in these states are dealing with more everyday financial challenges like paying their bills each month.”

For the purpose of this data analysis, battleground states for 2024 are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Battleground stress remained flat in September at 67.8, now 0.2 points below the national index. In August, battleground stress was 0.1 points above the national level.

Housing is a Major Stress Driver

“Many homeowners and renters continue to struggle to make ends meet and are looking for help right now,” said Kevin Almeroth, principal at Deming Parker, LLC, a LegalShield provider firm in Georgia. “An increasing number of households are cost-burdened, paying more than 30% of their monthly income to meet housing costs. Hopefully, recent rate cuts and slowing inflation will help fuel homebuyer demand and bring more sellers to the market, leading to more steady home prices and rental rates.”

LegalShield’s CSLI is based on a dataset of more than 35 million consumer requests for legal assistance since 2002. The index is built on three subindices tracking calls for legal assistance for issues related to Bankruptcy, Foreclosure and Consumer Finance.

The three subindices were mixed in September.

  • The Bankruptcy subindex rose 0.8 points to 33.1, up 17.1% year over year.
  • The Foreclosure subindex was down 3.0 points to 42.1.
  • The Consumer Finance subindex, which measures inquiries regarding a variety of consumer financial concerns such as billing disputes and loan modifications, was up 2.7 points to 108.7, the highest level since June 2023.

About the LegalShield Consumer Stress Legal Index:

As part of LegalShield’s mission to ensure every person has equal access to justice, we mine our data for insights policymakers can use to make a real, positive impact in their decision making. Released monthly, the LegalShield Consumer Stress Legal Index is comprised of three subindices which reflect the demand for various legal services. LegalShield’s dataset includes more than 35 million consumer requests for legal assistance since 2002, averaging approximately 150,000 calls received monthly. The CSLI uncovers the daily challenges people are facing and provides actionable intelligence to help policymakers and industry leaders bridge those gaps.

About LegalShield:

For more than 50 years, LegalShield has provided everyday Americans with easy and affordable access to legal advice, counsel, protection, and representation. Serving millions, LegalShield is one of the world's largest platforms for legal, identity, and reputation management services protecting individuals and businesses across North America. Founded in 1972, LegalShield, and its privacy management product, IDShield, has provided individuals, families, businesses, and employers with tools and services needed to affordably live a just and secure life. Through technology and innovation, LegalShield is disrupting the traditional legal system and transforming how and where people receive legal guidance and services, with access to thousands of qualified, trusted attorneys and law firms. LegalShield and IDShield are products of Pre-Paid Legal Services, Inc. To learn more about LegalShield and IDShield, visit LegalShield.com and IDShield.com.