There are a few key trends to look for if we want to identify the next multi-bagger. Ideally, a business will show two trends; firstly a growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and secondly, an increasing amount of capital employed. Put simply, these types of businesses are compounding machines, meaning they are continually reinvesting their earnings at ever-higher rates of return. So when we looked at the ROCE trend of Greggs (LON:GRG) we really liked what we saw.
For those that aren't sure what ROCE is, it measures the amount of pre-tax profits a company can generate from the capital employed in its business. To calculate this metric for Greggs, this is the formula:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.22 = UK£186m ÷ (UK£1.1b - UK£300m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2024).
So, Greggs has an ROCE of 22%. That's a fantastic return and not only that, it outpaces the average of 8.0% earned by companies in a similar industry.
Check out our latest analysis for Greggs
In the above chart we have measured Greggs' prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free analyst report for Greggs .
The trends we've noticed at Greggs are quite reassuring. Over the last five years, returns on capital employed have risen substantially to 22%. Basically the business is earning more per dollar of capital invested and in addition to that, 43% more capital is being employed now too. So we're very much inspired by what we're seeing at Greggs thanks to its ability to profitably reinvest capital.
In summary, it's great to see that Greggs can compound returns by consistently reinvesting capital at increasing rates of return, because these are some of the key ingredients of those highly sought after multi-baggers. Since the stock has returned a solid 66% to shareholders over the last five years, it's fair to say investors are beginning to recognize these changes. In light of that, we think it's worth looking further into this stock because if Greggs can keep these trends up, it could have a bright future ahead.
Like most companies, Greggs does come with some risks, and we've found 1 warning sign that you should be aware of.
Greggs is not the only stock earning high returns. If you'd like to see more, check out our free list of companies earning high returns on equity with solid fundamentals.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.