Increasing losses over three years doesn't faze FAT Brands (NASDAQ:FAT) investors as stock hikes 11% this past week

Simply Wall St · 10/15 11:49

FAT Brands Inc. (NASDAQ:FAT) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 11% in the last week. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last three years have been less than pleasing. Truth be told the share price declined 41% in three years and that return, Dear Reader, falls short of what you could have got from passive investing with an index fund.

While the last three years has been tough for FAT Brands shareholders, this past week has shown signs of promise. So let's look at the longer term fundamentals and see if they've been the driver of the negative returns.

Check out our latest analysis for FAT Brands

FAT Brands isn't currently profitable, so most analysts would look to revenue growth to get an idea of how fast the underlying business is growing. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. As you can imagine, fast revenue growth, when maintained, often leads to fast profit growth.

In the last three years, FAT Brands saw its revenue grow by 53% per year, compound. That is faster than most pre-profit companies. The share price drop of 12% per year over three years would be considered disappointing by many, so you might argue the company is getting little credit for its impressive revenue growth. It seems likely that actual growth fell short of shareholders' expectations. Before considering a purchase, investors should consider how quickly expenses are growing, relative to revenue.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
NasdaqCM:FAT Earnings and Revenue Growth October 15th 2024

This free interactive report on FAT Brands' balance sheet strength is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of FAT Brands, it has a TSR of -26% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

FAT Brands shareholders are down 16% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 35%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 12%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. To that end, you should learn about the 4 warning signs we've spotted with FAT Brands (including 2 which make us uncomfortable) .

Of course FAT Brands may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.