BOC International: The NEV penetration rate in September was 53.3%, optimistic about the “Silver Ten” market performance

The Zhitong Finance App learned that BOC International released a research report saying that the NEV penetration rate in September was 53.3%, and remained above 50% for the third month in a row. Recently, the Ministry of Finance and the Development and Reform Commission stepped up the passenger car scrapping and renewal policy. With the further strengthening of the policy and the introduction of local trade-in policies, and the arrival of a wave of new car launches in the fourth quarter, the bank expects that all of these will have a better effect on promoting the overall market during the “Silver Ten” peak sales season. The bank suggests focusing on the new vehicle cycle (M03/LEDO L60) of BYD (01211) DM5.0 model+ and Xiaopeng Automobile-W (09868) /NIO (09866), which is a high-quality standard in the passenger car sector.

The main views of BOC International are as follows:

Passenger car retail sales increased 10.6% month-on-month in September, further increasing the market share of independent brands.

With the further strengthening of policies and the introduction of local trade-in policies, the overall market continued to pick up month-on-month. In September, the national passenger car market retailed 2.109 million units (+4.5%/+10.6%); in January-September, the total retail sales volume was 15.574 million units (+2.2% year over year). The share of independent brands continued to rise, while the share of joint ventures declined. Independent brands sold 1.34 million vehicles in September, +25%/+11% month-on-month. In September, the national retail share of independent brands increased 10.1 percentage points year on year to 63.5%; in January-September, the cumulative share of independent brands was 59%, an increase of 8.1 percentage points over the same period last year. Mainstream joint venture brands retailed 530,000 vehicles in September (-22%/+10% month-on-month), of which German/Japanese/American retail share was 16.5%/12.6%/5.7% (-3.6/-4.0/ -1.7 percentage points year over year).

In September, the NEV retail penetration rate was 53.3%, surpassing 50% for the third month in a row.

In September, retail sales of new energy vehicles recorded 1.123 million units (+50.9%/+9.6% month-on-month), and the penetration rate fell slightly by 0.6 percentage points to 53.3% month-on-month, breaking through 50% for the third month in a row. From January to September 2024, the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles was 7.132 million units (+37.4% year over year), with a penetration rate of 46%. By brand, the penetration rate of own-brand new energy vehicles reached 74.9% in September, and the penetration rate of luxury/joint venture brands was 33.5%/7%, respectively. Among them, BYD recorded sales of 387,000 vehicles, with a market share of 18.2%. New forces are growing strongly, and the overall retail share increased 2.6 percentage points year over year to 16.5%.

Overall exports increased slightly month-on-month in September, and the share of new energy vehicles remained at 24%.

In September, passenger car exports (including complete vehicles and CKD (full spare parts mode)) totaled 435,000 units, +22% year over month, +5% month on month; NEV passenger vehicle exports were +6.0% month-on-month to 105,000 units, and their share of passenger car exports remained flat at 24.2% month-on-month. From January to September 2024, a total of 3.55 million vehicles were exported, +32% year-on-year, with strong growth.