CICC: Policy supports Double 11 promotion or boosts platform GMV and conversion rate

The Zhitong Finance App learned that CICC published a research report saying that the platform's major promotion period has been lengthened. Considering the lengthening of the overall activity span, CICC expects actual consumer transactions to be further ahead. GMV's performance in October may be significantly better than the same period last year. With the introduction of policies related to stimulating consumption, such as the increase in trade-in policies, it is expected to form a double discount with the Double 11 promotion. Increased discounts on household appliances and other categories may have a certain driving effect on Double 11GMV and conversion rates. Furthermore, the interconnection between major Internet platforms provides consumers with convenient shopping and more flexible choices, and may be expected to increase the number of consumers ordering and consumer participation.

The platform's big promotion period has been extended. The '24 Double 11 event started at the earliest in history. Tmall started the Double 11 pre-sale at 8 p.m. on October 14, JD officially started sales at 8 p.m. on October 14, and Pinduo launched the Double 11 event on October 14, while Douyin and Kuaishou launched early events and warm-ups on October 8 and October 10, respectively. The event period was generally extended by 10-15 days. CICC believes that platforms that launched the 618 promotion early have generally achieved relatively good GMV performance, and now e-commerce platforms all use GMV as an important assessment indicator, further encouraging all platforms to advance Double 11 activities to gain share from other platforms. Considering the lengthening of the overall activity span, CICC expects actual consumer transactions to be further ahead, and GMV's performance in October may be significantly better than the same period last year.

Platform investment has increased, combined with trade-in policies, and increased user subsidies and discounts. Most of the major platforms of Double 11 Promotion in '24 have increased their discount strength. Among them, Tmall Shuang11 will issue 30 billion yuan of consumer vouchers, and the issuance of 88 VIP vouchers will be increased compared to the same period of 618 this year and last year's Double 11; JD added 3 daily 200 yuan minus 20 yuan superimposed coupons; Pinduoduo increased its 10 billion subsidy campaign and launched the “10 billion consumer vouchers” campaign for the first time; Douyin and Kuaishou increased their red envelope distribution efforts. CICC believes that although macroeconomic consumption is weak, with the introduction of policies related to stimulating consumption, such as the increase in trade-in policies, it is expected to form a double discount with the Double 11 promotion. Increased discounts in categories such as home appliances may have a certain driving effect on Double 11GMV and conversion rates. Among them, JD may benefit the most from e-commerce platforms.

Connectivity makes shopping convenient for consumers. Since September '24, WeChat Pay has been fully integrated into Taobao, JD Logistics has gradually integrated Cainiao Express and Cainiao Station, and JD will connect to Alipay. CICC believes that the interconnection between major internet platforms provides consumers with convenient shopping and more flexible choices, and may be expected to increase the number of consumers ordering and consumer participation.

risk

Macroeconomic uncertainty risk; industry competition exacerbates risk; regulatory policy risk.