Calculating The Fair Value Of Munters Group AB (publ) (STO:MTRS)

Key Insights

• Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Munters Group fair value estimate is kr202
• With kr212 share price, Munters Group appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value
• The kr245 analyst price target for MTRS is 21% more than our estimate of fair value

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Munters Group AB (publ) (STO:MTRS) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for Munters Group

The Calculation

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034
Levered FCF (SEK, Millions)	kr1.47b	kr1.67b	kr1.75b	kr1.81b	kr1.86b	kr1.90b	kr1.94b	kr1.97b	kr2.00b	kr2.03b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x2	Analyst x2	Est @ 4.67%	Est @ 3.59%	Est @ 2.84%	Est @ 2.31%	Est @ 1.94%	Est @ 1.68%	Est @ 1.50%	Est @ 1.38%
Present Value (SEK, Millions) Discounted @ 6.0%	kr1.4k	kr1.5k	kr1.5k	kr1.4k	kr1.4k	kr1.3k	kr1.3k	kr1.2k	kr1.2k	kr1.1k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = kr13b

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.1%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 6.0%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₄ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = kr2.0b× (1 + 1.1%) ÷ (6.0%– 1.1%) = kr42b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= kr42b÷ ( 1 + 6.0%)¹⁰= kr24b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is kr37b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of kr212, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

Important Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Munters Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.0%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.185. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Munters Group

Moving On:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Munters Group, we've compiled three pertinent aspects you should consider:

1. Risks: Be aware that Munters Group is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...
2. Future Earnings: How does MTRS's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the OM every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.