The Huatai Securities Research Report said that looking ahead, the weakening of the global manufacturing cycle and the November US election may cause exports to face great uncertainty, but China's exports still have strong structural support. On the one hand, China's manufacturing export competitiveness and cost performance advantages have also been further strengthened, and its share of global exports is expected to remain high; on the other hand, cross-border e-commerce has become a new driving force for export growth; furthermore, if the policy expectations and timelines for subsequent US tariffs are clear, it is not ruled out that a “export grab” effect will occur at a specific stage, which will drive short-term exports. Specifically, the comparative price advantage of industrial products in China is still quite obvious. The rapid development of cross-border e-commerce in recent years has also brought about structural export growth. The share of cross-border e-commerce in exports increased from 7.7% last year to 8% in the first three quarters, contributing about 14% of export growth. Overall, as the growth rate of the global manufacturing cycle declines, global trade activity may continue to decelerate sequentially in the fourth quarter, but with the support of these structural factors, China's export growth rate is expected to maintain some resilience.

The Huatai Securities Research Report said that looking ahead, the weakening of the global manufacturing cycle and the November US election may cause exports to face great uncertainty, but China's exports still have strong structural support. On the one hand, China's manufacturing export competitiveness and cost performance advantages have also been further strengthened, and its share of global exports is expected to remain high; on the other hand, cross-border e-commerce has become a new driving force for export growth; furthermore, if the policy expectations and timelines for subsequent US tariffs are clear, it is not ruled out that a “export grab” effect will occur at a specific stage, which will drive short-term exports. Specifically, the comparative price advantage of industrial products in China is still quite obvious. The rapid development of cross-border e-commerce in recent years has also brought about structural export growth. The share of cross-border e-commerce in exports increased from 7.7% last year to 8% in the first three quarters, contributing about 14% of export growth. Overall, as the growth rate of the global manufacturing cycle declines, global trade activity may continue to decelerate sequentially in the fourth quarter, but with the support of these structural factors, China's export growth rate is expected to maintain some resilience.