Is Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co., Ltd (SZSE:300999) Trading At A 48% Discount?

Key Insights

• Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings fair value estimate is CN¥64.75
• Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings is estimated to be 48% undervalued based on current share price of CN¥33.94
• The CN¥28.13 analyst price target for 300999 is 57% less than our estimate of fair value

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co., Ltd (SZSE:300999) as an investment opportunity by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

View our latest analysis for Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings

The Calculation

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions)	CN¥6.33b	CN¥8.83b	CN¥10.8b	CN¥12.6b	CN¥14.1b	CN¥15.4b	CN¥16.6b	CN¥17.6b	CN¥18.5b	CN¥19.3b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Est @ 22.13%	Est @ 16.35%	Est @ 12.30%	Est @ 9.46%	Est @ 7.48%	Est @ 6.09%	Est @ 5.12%	Est @ 4.44%
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 6.8%	CN¥5.9k	CN¥7.7k	CN¥8.8k	CN¥9.6k	CN¥10.1k	CN¥10.4k	CN¥10.4k	CN¥10.4k	CN¥10.2k	CN¥10.0k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥94b

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.9%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 6.8%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₄ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥19b× (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (6.8%– 2.9%) = CN¥499b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= CN¥499b÷ ( 1 + 6.8%)¹⁰= CN¥257b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥351b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of CN¥33.9, the company appears quite good value at a 48% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

The Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.8%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings

Moving On:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings, we've compiled three relevant elements you should further examine:

1. Risks: Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings you should know about.
2. Future Earnings: How does 300999's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SZSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.