Cathay Pacific Junan: Profit expectations for the three major indices of Hong Kong stocks continue to rise, and the growth sector is at the highest growth rate

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guotai Junan Securities released a research report saying that profit expectations for the three major Hong Kong stock indices continue to rise, Hang Seng Technology's profit forecast is the highest year-on-year growth rate, and the profit forecast growth rate for US and Chinese stocks has recently improved. The growth rate of the growth sector is ahead, the overall boom has maintained an upward trend, and the profit expectations of the Bank of China with high dividends have steadily improved. Looking at the 2024 market's consistent revenue growth rate, Tongcheng Travel (00780) /Xiaopeng Auto (09868) /BYD Electronics (00285) /Shangtang (00020) /NIO (09866) predicted the highest revenue growth rate. Among them, Tongchengtravel/Xiaomi Group (01810) /Lenovo Group (00992) had the biggest improvement since the beginning of the year. Looking at the revenue growth rate unanimously predicted by the market in 2025, Xiaopeng Automobile/Weilai/Ideal (02015) /Shangtang/Huahong Semiconductor (01347) predicted the highest revenue growth rate. Among them, NIO, Xiaopeng, and Huahong Semiconductor had the biggest improvement in the predicted growth rate since the beginning of the year.

Profit expectations for the three major Hong Kong stock indices continue to rise. Hang Seng Technology's profit forecast is the highest year-on-year growth rate, and the profit forecast growth rate for US and Chinese stocks has recently been revised. According to Bloomberg's latest data, the market's consistent net profit expectations for the three major Hong Kong stock indices for the full year of 2024 and 2025 will continue to rise. Among them, Hang Seng Technology predicts EPS to have the highest absolute year-on-year growth rate. Compared with the beginning of September, the Hang Seng Index predicted an increase of 0.7%/0.5% for EPS, 0.1%/1.1% for Hang Seng Technology, and 1.7%/0.9% for Hang Seng SOEs, respectively, in 2024/2025. Recently, the profit forecast for US and Chinese stocks increased year-on-year, but compared to the beginning of September, the China Golden Dragon Index 2024/2025 predicts a slight decrease of 0.6%/0.4% in EPS. Hang Seng Technology's profit forecast performance is still significantly superior to other major indices. Profit expectations have continued to rise since the beginning of the year. Currently, Hengke predicts EPS growth rates of 44.2%/33.7% year-on-year in 2024/2025, respectively. In contrast, the Hang Seng Index/Hang Seng State-owned Enterprise/NASDAQ China Golden Dragon Indices forecast EPS growth rates of 5.4%/1.7%, 8.3%/4.3%, and 12.3%/11.1% respectively in 2024/2025. The Hang Seng Index is up 1.5%/0.7% from early September.

Hang Seng Composite Industry Index: Materials/IT/Telecommunications/Energy 2024/2025 forecast EPS growth rate is high in absolute terms, and real estate construction/materials/finance has improved markedly compared to early September. Bloomberg agreed to expect the top three EPS growth industries in 2024 to be materials, information technology, and telecommunications, at 24.3%/10.1%/6.2%, respectively. In 2025, Bloomberg agreed that the top three EPS growth industries would be materials/energy/telecommunications, at 13.5%/5.7%/4.5%, respectively. From the perspective of marginal changes, the real estate construction/materials/composition/finance industry improved markedly from the EPS forecast in early September. 24/25E was revised up 26.2%/10.4%, 14.0%/6.2%, 8.8%/5.9%, and 2.7%/1.4%, respectively.

Profit expectations for key Hong Kong stock industries: The growth rate of the growth sector is ahead, the overall sentiment remains improving, and the profit expectations of the Bank of China, which have high dividends, are improving steadily. In terms of growth style, the expected growth rate of pharmaceutical vehicles and the like has improved: 1) According to Bloomberg's unanimous expectations, IT (Hong Kong Stock Internet/Media) profit expectations have declined somewhat from a high in early September. Revenue maintained high growth in the first half of the year, but the profit side contracted. 2) The boom in the pharmaceutical industry is expected to improve, and the profit forecast for the pharmaceutical sector is higher than in early September. 3) The amount of investment in the electronics industry declined, and profit expectations for the semiconductor sector declined significantly compared to the beginning of September. 4) The boom in the automotive industry continues to improve, and profit expectations for the automotive sector have increased compared to the beginning of September. In terms of high dividends, financial profit expectations have improved steadily. 1) Bank profit expectations have declined since 2023Q, and there has been a steady improvement in July 2024. Recently, profit expectations have been revised. 2) The telecom sector's profit forecast was slightly lower than in early September, but the year-on-year profit growth rate is still at a high level. 3) The energy sector is weakening, and profit expectations are lower than in early September. 4) Hydropower generation declined, and the utility sector's profit forecast was lower than in September.

Profit expectations for key individual stocks in Hong Kong stocks and Chinese stocks: The recent profit forecast growth rate for US and Chinese stocks has improved overall. Individual stocks such as Tongcheng/Xiaopeng/BYD forecast a high revenue growth rate in 2024, and Tongcheng/Xiaomi/Lenovo have improved the most compared to the beginning of the year. Looking at the revenue growth rate unanimously predicted by the market in 2024, Tongcheng Travel/Xiaopeng Motor/BYD Electronics/Shangtang/NIO predicted the highest revenue growth rate among key Hong Kong stock companies. Among them, Tongcheng Travel/Xiaomi Group/Lenovo Group improved the most since the beginning of the year. Looking at the revenue growth rate unanimously predicted by the market in 2025, Xiaopeng Automobile/Weilai/Shangtang/Huahong Semiconductor predicted the highest revenue growth rate. Among them, NIO/Xiaopeng/Huahong Semiconductor improved the growth rate the most compared to the beginning of the year. The year-on-year growth rate of US stocks and Chinese stocks increased compared to the beginning of September compared to the beginning of September. Up to now, the NASDAQ China Golden Dragon Index predicts a year-on-year EPS growth rate of 12.3%/11.1% in 2024/2025, up 9.1%/6.5% from the beginning of September, respectively.