Investors in Kajima (TSE:1812) have seen impressive returns of 121% over the past five years

Simply Wall St · 10/14 21:22

Generally speaking the aim of active stock picking is to find companies that provide returns that are superior to the market average. Buying under-rated businesses is one path to excess returns. For example, the Kajima Corporation (TSE:1812) share price is up 83% in the last 5 years, clearly besting the market return of around 59% (ignoring dividends). On the other hand, the more recent gains haven't been so impressive, with shareholders gaining just 13%, including dividends.

Now it's worth having a look at the company's fundamentals too, because that will help us determine if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.

See our latest analysis for Kajima

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During five years of share price growth, Kajima achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 4.2% per year. This EPS growth is lower than the 13% average annual increase in the share price. So it's fair to assume the market has a higher opinion of the business than it did five years ago. And that's hardly shocking given the track record of growth.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-per-share-growth
TSE:1812 Earnings Per Share Growth October 14th 2024

Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Kajima the TSR over the last 5 years was 121%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

Kajima provided a TSR of 13% over the last twelve months. But that return falls short of the market. On the bright side, the longer term returns (running at about 17% a year, over half a decade) look better. It may well be that this is a business worth popping on the watching, given the continuing positive reception, over time, from the market. Importantly, we haven't analysed Kajima's dividend history. This free visual report on its dividends is a must-read if you're thinking of buying.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Japanese exchanges.