Shootin' the Bull about trying hard

“Shootin’ The Bull”

End of Day Market Recap

by Christopher Swift

​

10/14/2024

Live Cattle:​

Traders worked feverishly all day attempting to push fats to a new high.  They were unable by the close, but they tried awfully hard.  Boxes have run back to above $312.00 again, which is expected to test the resilience of the consumer further. With an even basis, cash will lead in either direction.  Were there to be some sort of change to arise, then futures may lead the way for a little while.  I continue to believe ownership of the at the money puts to be sufficient in protecting price as we see how cattle feeders, packers and consumers mark time to the election and year's end.  

​

Feeder Cattle:​

Trades were able to eek out another new high today in this correction.  The index reading today is $250.61 with the 50% retracement of the index at $250.71.  With the previous recommendation having been to wrap up any lose ends, I don't have any more recommendations.  You are so close to the top of the index you can spit and hit it.  Futures traders have done what I never thought they would, that being, letting most everyone out of an enormous basis trap that had not hedged.  The basis trap is believed to have been reset, as most contract months are even or within less than $5.00 of the index.  As stated before, a great deal of hedging, or marketing is being able to live with the consequences of your decision.  At this juncture, the index is $11.27 from historical high, or 4% from the high.  I can't make you make a decision, but I am encouraging it with the most gumption, gusto, and heartfelt intuition that I can.    ​

​

​Hogs:

​Hogs were lower today with the index down $.18 at $84.29.​

​​​​

Corn:  

​Corn, wheat and beans were all lower.  I expect corn and beans to continue to form a sideways trading range and made a recommendation to buy July Chicago or KC wheat with a sell stop to exit only at $6.10 for either exchange. 

​

Energy:

​Energy was lower today.  I expect energy to trade higher. ​​

​​

Bonds:

Bonds were lower today as inflation continues.  Equities hit all time new highs again.  If there were anything inflated, it appears stock prices are.  The thought process of how companies will supersede earnings going forward takes a lot of energy to think through.  The Fed continues to talk about squelching inflation, yet continues to spur it on.  When I hear most analysts and even on the evening news of how consumers are strapped with inflation costs, and how they are trying to trim spending to adapt to, it leads me back to massive government spending going on that is driving inflation and while some have been vocal to disagree, spending on illegal immigration is believed a large portion of the inflation problem.  I expect significant volatility going into the elections. ​​​​​​​​​

​

This is intended to be or is in the nature of a solicitation. An investment in futures contracts is speculative, involves a high degree of risk and is suitable only for persons who can assume the risk of loss in excess of the margin deposits.  You should carefully consider whether futures trading is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience, trading objectives, financial resources and other relevant circumstances. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. 

On the date of publication, Chris Swift did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.