Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo Says 'Strong Snapdragon 8 Gen 4 shipments to significantly boost Qualcomm's 4Q24/F1Q25 business momentum' - Medium

https://medium.com/@mingchikuo/strong-snapdragon-8-gen-4-shipments-to-significantly-boost-qualcomms-4q24-f1q25-business-momentum-1e622b9e9170

 

• Among Qualcomm's mobile SoCs this year, the highest-priced and most profitable Snapdragon 8 Gen 4 (SD8G4) will see most of its 2024 shipments in 4Q24.

 

• Compared to SD8G3, SD8G4's 2H24 shipments are expected to grow 50% YoY to about 9 million units, with an ASP increase of around 15% to $180. It's expected to contribute significantly to 4Q24 revenue and profit.

 

• The significant growth in SD8G4 shipments is attributed not only to a more extended shipping period compared to SD8G3 and increased demand from Samsung but also benefits from recent changes in the Chinese smartphone market, including increased market share of Chinese brands, a higher proportion of high-end models, and a recovery in overall smartphone shipments.

 

• Chinese brand smartphones reached about 80% market share during the recent Golden Week holiday sales, with shipments growing approximately 20% YoY (vs. iPhone, which was flattish). This trend will continue through 4Q24.

 

• The market share of high-end smartphones (above 4000 RMB) in China is projected to grow from 25–30% in 2023 to 30–35% in 2024.
  6. In 2024, Chinese smartphone market shipments are estimated to grow about 3% YoY to 280 million units, with continued growth expected in 2025.

 

• I believe Qualcomm's stock price has already factored in the negative impact of Apple developing its own 5G chips. The company's stock is poised to benefit not only from better-than-expected momentum in 4Q24 but also from favorable trends in 2025, including AI smartphone and AI PC growth and increased SoC prices due to the adoption of TSMC's N3P process.