Trump And Harris Neck-And-Neck In Final Stretch Of Presidential Race, But Here's How Vice President Can Regain Momentum

Benzinga · 10/14 13:05

With a little over 20 days to go for the presidential election, the uncertainty regarding the outcome has intensified, with the latest NBC News poll showing that the two sides are now evenly matched.

What Happened: Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris took away the support of 48% of the registered voters each when pitched one-on-one, while 4% said they were either undecided or wouldn’t vote for either.

The results are based on a new NBC News poll conducted between Oct. 4 to Oct. 8 among 1,000 registered voters nationally, with the margin of error at 3.1 percentage points.

The equation has changed from September when Harris was ahead of Trump by five points, which however was within the margin of error.

When third-party candidates were included, Trump led by a laser-thin margin of one percentage point, with the equation at 47%-46%. The remaining 7% either picked other candidates or said they were undecided. In September, Harris had a six-point lead in the expanded ballot.

“As summer has turned to fall, any signs of momentum for Kamala Harris have stopped,” said Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt, who conducted this survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff. “The race is a dead heat,” he added.

McInturff said concerns that Harris doesn’t represent a change from President Joe Biden’s tenure and voters viewing Republican nominee Donald Trump in a more positive light than Biden as headwinds for the vice president.

See Also: Poll: Hispanic Voters Reconsidering Support For Harris

How Voter Turnout Impacts: Things are fluid with 10% of voters stating they might change their minds and some voters still on the fence, NBC News said. Also, the proportion of voters believing that the presidential vote can make a difference in their lives is at an all-time high, it added.

“And in a finely balanced election, even small changes in turnout among different groups could be the difference between a win and a loss for either party,” it said.

A more favorable environment for the Republicans means slightly greater turnout among men, white voters and voters without college degrees. In this case, Trump leads Harris by 49%-47%.

If more women, more white voters with college degrees and more voters of color show up, it would mark a favorable turnout for Democrats. In such a scenario Harris was ahead of Trump by 49%-46%.

The pollster cautioned that all of these results were within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Did You Know?

Image via Shutterstock