4% guaranteed return! Analysis of the reasons behind the 2024 silver bond wave triggering a wave of subscriptions

The Zhitong Finance App learned that the 2024 guaranteed interest rate for silver bonds was 4%, and the subscription ended at 2:00 p.m. on the 14th. The Hong Kong government will announce the results for a period of 3 years, with an issuance amount of up to 55 billion yuan. The Hong Kong government will announce the results on the 21st of this month. Several banks have indicated that the 2024 subscription response for silver bonds has been enthusiastic. Leading banks have reported that the overall subscription amount has decreased compared to the previous batch of bank bonds. An HSBC (00005) spokesperson said that the overall number and amount of subscribers through the bank declined moderately compared to last year, but the average customer subscription amount increased slightly. More than one-fifth of the customers who subscribed to bank bonds through HSBC participated in the program for the first time, while 41% of HSBC customers who also invested in bank bonds last year increased their investment amount this year. This reflects that the new batch of bank bonds continues to attract investment from elderly customers with a return of 4% guaranteed annual interest rate. More than half of the applications were made through digital channels, a record high.

Bank of China Hong Kong (02388): Each person is expected to receive 20 lots or more of silver bonds

Leung Mei-yee, Assistant General Manager of BOCHK Personal Gold Products, said that the amount of silver bonds subscribed through BOCHK has reached a new high, and the number of online channel subscribers has increased compared to previous years. Among them, the number of customers subscribing through mobile banking has risen by more than 20%. The bank's silver bond customers subscribed an average of about 22 lots this year, which is higher than last year's average of about 20 lots. It is expected that each person will be distributed more than 20 lots. Since this silver bond can lock in a 4% guaranteed return for the next three years, I believe that customers will hold silver bonds for a long time to collect interest.

Standard Chartered: The average number of silver bonds purchased by customers is 24 lots higher than last year

A Standard Chartered spokesperson said that the response of customers subscribing to the new batch of silver bonds was in line with expectations. The subscription amount was similar to last year. The average number of customers subscribed was 24 lots, up from last year. Many customers submitted applications through digital channels.

East Asia: Total subscription amount recorded double-digit growth

The Bank of East Asia (00023) said that there was an enthusiastic response from customers subscribing to bank bonds this year. The total number of subscribers increased compared to last year, while the total subscription amount and average subscription amount recorded double-digit increases.

CCB (Asia): The average number of silver bonds purchased by customers increased compared to last year

CCB (Asia) said that the bank bond subscription response was good. The average customer subscription amount was about HK$280,000, a slight increase compared with the previous year, and the overall subscription situation was in line with expectations. From October 23, 2024 to October 31, 2024, you can enjoy an additional annual interest rate of 0.1% for a 3-month HKD time deposit of HK$100,000 to HK$1,000,000 through a branch with silver bond refunds or new funds.

CNBC International: Customers buy an average of 26 lots of silver bonds

CITIC International said that the bank's customers had an average subscription amount of HK$260,000, and it also received more than HK$1 million in large subscriptions. Compared with the previous batch of bank bonds, the cumulative subscription amount increased by more than 15%; while both the number of subscribers and the average subscription amount recorded increases.

CMB Wing Lung: Customers buy an average of 25 silver bonds

According to China Merchants Wing Lung Bank, the average subscription amount and total subscription amount for the new batch of silver retail bonds was similar to last year. The average subscription amount per customer during the subscription period was 250,000 yuan, and several large subscriptions of 1 million yuan were also recorded. More than 70% of customers subscribed through electronic channels (mobile banking/online banking services).

Shangshang: Bank bonds are still attractive to conservative customers, and overall subscriptions are expected to be enthusiastic this year

A Shanghai Commercial Bank spokesperson said that this year's silver bond subscription response was ideal. The bank's cumulative number of subscribers and amounts were similar to last year; since customers already fully understood the distribution mechanism for silver bonds, this year's average subscription amount was about 200,000 yuan as last year. According to the bank, the guaranteed interest rate for current bank bonds is 4%. In addition, the market already expects interest to peak, and there is an opportunity to fall back in the future. It is relatively attractive for conservative customers. It is expected that the overall subscription situation will remain warm this year.

Yao Cai (01428): Customers subscribe for an average of 20 to 25 silver bonds

Xu Yibin, CEO of Yaocai Securities, said that although the Hang Seng Index began to rise rapidly at the end of September and rose more than 5,000 points in less than half a month, it still did not hurt the desire of bankers to subscribe to bank bonds. He pointed out that the number of subscribers and subscription amounts of the company were similar to last year, with a subscription amount of nearly 620 million yuan; however, the general subscription trend of customers was also more aggressive than the previous few times. The average subscription amount was 20 to 25 lots, and there were more than 10 customers with a maximum subscription amount of 100 lots.

Xu Yibin pointed out that most of the participating customers transferred the bank's regular subscription to bank bonds. They knew that interest on the bank's time deposit dropped significantly after interest rate cuts in the US, and was only 3.5% for large periods; in the future, if interest rate cuts continue, term interest will continue to fall; on the contrary, bank bonds always guarantee 4% interest.