Cui Dongshu: Retail sales of 1.12 million vehicles in the NEV market reached a record high in September, and the popularity of the car market rebounded every month

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the Passenger Transport Association, published an article stating that in September 2024, the NEV market retailed 1.12 million vehicles, showing a good state of strong growth in September, with 1.12 million reaching a record monthly high. Due to the release in Beijing, the effects of the release of new demand in June-September were obvious, and some wait-and-see groups began to buy cars, and the effects of the scrapping and renewal policy gradually became apparent, increasing the enthusiasm for purchasing.

As the country called for a backlash, terminal prices also stabilized in the 3rd quarter, scrapping and renewal policies were further strengthened, and local trade-in policies were introduced one after another. The wait-and-see sentiment among consumers holding coins further eased, and the overall popularity of the NEV market picked up. The production and sales trend of new energy vehicles was strong in September. New energy manufacturers achieved record highs in sales, domestic retail, production, etc., which showed that NEVs had an obvious effect of replacing fuel vehicles. The recovery in small and micro electric vehicles has also further expanded the consumption space in the car market and achieved better overall growth.

I. Overall trend of new energy passenger vehicles

1. New energy vehicle wholesale was strong in September 2024

In September 2024, wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.23 million units, surpassing the highest level in history. Due to Spring Festival factors and price reduction disruptions, the decline was significant in February, and the market gradually resumed growth in March-August. The month-on-month growth in September was huge, breaking through the historical monthly high.

Since 2023, there has been a downward trend in power battery prices due to the decline in raw materials such as lithium and nickel. Lower sales in February will help companies cut production at the beginning of the year, remove historical inventory, and achieve a continuous increase in sales of new products.

Wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.23 million units in September, and the year-on-year growth rate rebounded to 48%. Compared with the 30% growth rate in January-August, this is a strong increase. Overall, the increase was relatively rapid in January-September. Wholesale growth in September was still low compared to retail sales, reflecting the market-driving effect.

2. National New Energy Permeability Rate - Wholesale

The wholesale penetration rate of NEV manufacturers in September was 49.1%, up 15 percentage points from the 33.9% penetration rate in September 2023.

In September, the penetration rate of own-brand NEVs was 64%; the penetration rate of NEVs among luxury cars was 40%; while the penetration rate of NEVs of mainstream joint venture brands was only 6.2%.

In September, wholesale sales of traditional car manufacturers fell 11% year on year, while retail sales of new energy vehicles rose 54% year on year. The growth rate gap was 65 points, and the pressure on fuel vehicles was high.

3. Strong growth in NEV retail sales in September 2024

The NEV market retailed 1.12 million vehicles in September 2024, showing a good state of strong growth in September, with 1.12 million reaching a record monthly high.

Due to the release in Beijing, the effects of the release of new demand in June-September were obvious, and some wait-and-see groups began to buy cars, and the effects of the scrapping and renewal policy gradually became apparent, increasing the enthusiasm for purchasing.

In 2023, 7.75 million vehicles were sold, an increase of 36% over the previous year. The 51% growth rate in September was excellent. From January to September 2024, the retail sale of new energy vehicles was 7.14 million units, a relatively strong trend of 37%, higher than the 34% growth rate in 2023. This is a very good performance.

4. National New Energy Penetration Rate - Retail

In September, the domestic retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 53.2%, up 16.3 percentage points from 36.9% in the same period last year.

In domestic retail sales in September, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles among independent brands was 74.9%; the penetration rate of new energy vehicles among luxury cars was 33.5%; while the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in mainstream joint venture brands was only 7%.

In September, retail sales of traditional vehicles fell 18% year on year, while retail sales of new energy vehicles rose 57% year on year, with a difference of 75 points. The fuel vehicle tax burden was high, and the pressure was high.

5. Exports of new energy vehicles fell significantly in September 2024

In September 2024, 105,000 new energy vehicles were exported, with a slight month-on-month recovery. The slump in exports in January-February should have been affected by factors such as shipping. Autonomous exports increased significantly in March, and exports from some autonomous car companies were actively adjusted in April-June in the face of weakening demand from Europe. Independent exports continued to strengthen in July-September.

New energy product brands made in China are increasingly going abroad. Due to the continuous increase in overseas recognition and the improvement of service networks, own-brand pure electric motors are mainly aimed at developed markets. Currently, there is a phenomenon of blocking China's new energy. This is completely wrong, but we also need to face it calmly.

From January to September 2024, a total of 880,000 units were exported, an increase of 19% over the previous year. Judging from recent retail data monitoring for independent exports to overseas markets, the performance of independent brands in Europe is average. In some overseas regions, in addition to the impressive performance of traditional car exporters, exports from new forces have also been gradually launched recently. Overseas markets have also begun to show data. The export performance of South America and the like is also constantly improving, and exports of autonomous plug-in hybrid models have begun to grow. The high export base in September 2023 had little impact on exports. The impact of tariffs imposed by the EU is gradually fading. China's cost competitiveness is still huge, and NEV exports are expected to grow at a high rate over the next few months.

II. Analysis of the NEV passenger vehicle market structure

1. Van structure of a new energy vehicle

The growth in all forms of power was relatively good in September. Among them, retail sales of pure electric vehicles in September were 644,000 units, up 29% year on year, up 11% month on month; in September, mixed sales were 356,000 units in the narrow sense, up 97% year on year and 6% month on month.

In the new energy retail structure in September: 57% pure electric, 32% mixed in the narrow sense, 11% growth rate. In September 2023, it was 67% pure electric, 24% mixed in the narrow sense, and 9% incremental. In the new energy wholesale structure for the whole of 2023:67% pure electric, 25% mixed in the narrow sense, and 9% increase in range. The range extension effectively compensates for the battery life anxiety of pure electric power, and should belong to the pure electric branch.

2. New energy vehicle classes - all levels are relatively balanced

Sales of electric vehicles at various levels were divided in September, and the trend of consumption upgrading was very good. Mini-electric vehicles are growing strongly. Demand for small electric vehicles is weak, and household demand for a second car is average. High-end SUVs represented by Xiaomi are growing strongly.

Due to the end of the tax exemption policy for mini electric vehicles below 200 kilometers at the end of May, it led to a sharp contraction of more than 20,000 electric vehicles with a monthly average of more than 20,000 units, which led to a downturn in the pure electric market in June-July. As subsidies increased, the pure electric A00 class entry market gradually recovered in September, which was driven by the scrapping renewal policy. End-of-life renewal subsidies drive the demand for plug-in hybrid models to further divert fuel vehicle demand.

3. The autonomy of new energy vehicles and the performance of new forces continues to be strong

Judging from the monthly domestic retail share, the Pure Electric Autonomous Plus Company had a strong performance in September. The market size of major joint ventures plus traditional luxury cars is far lower than Tesla.

The overall year-on-year and month-on-month sales performance of new car companies such as NIO, Nana, Ideal, and Zero Race is still strong. In particular, NIO and Ideal have performed well. This is also an advantage in market segmentation.

Independent brands have a big advantage in the pure electric market, and Tesla is the main high-end. Recently, mixed autonomy has increasingly taken a dominant advantage, and the growth process has become independent and exclusive to new forces.

3. The differentiation of major NEV manufacturers in September 2024

1. Sales trends of major NEV manufacturers month by month over the years

In terms of product launch, with autonomous vehicle companies' implementation of the “multi-line approach” strategy on the new energy route, the market base continued to expand, and the number of manufacturers with monthly wholesale sales of NEVs exceeded 10,000 vehicles reached 21 (4 year-on-year increase, 2 month-on-month increase), accounting for 92.8% of the total number of new energy passenger vehicles (90.8% last month and 88.5% in the same period last year).

Independent companies occupy an absolute dominant position, but some car companies are also under continuous pressure to decline in cumulative sales.

There was little change between this year and last year's major NEV car companies. The leading company, BYD, has not changed, but Geely and Tesla have overtaken the changes. The month-on-month trend of pure electric performance is strong. Among them, BYD 417,603, Geely, 88,321 Tesla, China 88,321, SAIC-GM-Wuling 77191, Chery, 5,4857, Ideal, 53709, Changan, 4,7040, GAC Aian 40,360, Celis 37,200, Dongfeng 34,412, Zero Sports, 33767, Great Wall 30068, Xiaopeng Motor 21,352, NIO 21181, FAW Hongqi 19563140 77 cars, SAIC VW 13784 Vehicles: 13,559 Xiaomi cars, 12,208 SAIC passenger cars, 10,880 Jihu cars, and 10,696 Volvo Asia Pacific cars.

2. New energy vehicle passenger car models released for wholesale

In September, 23 passenger car wholesale sales exceeded 20,000 units (16 last month), BYD Song: 62030 units, Modely: 51,152 units, Seagull: 43,425 units, Qin L: 43006 units, Seal 06:42,300 units, MODEL3:37169 units, Sylphy: 35571 units, BYD Qin: 32779 units, BYD Yuan: 31,515 units, Xingyue: 28,913 units, Ruihu 8:28090 units, Wuling Bingguo: 27806 L, Song Tai: 27105, Sagitar: 26,206, Hongguang MINI: 26121 units, Ideal L6:25393 units, BYD Han: 24525 units, Passat: 23,280 units, Tiggo 7:23022 units, Lavida: 23011 units, Boyue: 22018 units, BYD Dolphin: 20,346 units. Among them, NEV ranked in the top 6 overall passenger car sales (top 8 last month), and the domestic performance of major fuel vehicle models such as Sylphy and Passat has improved.

IV. Analysis of the pure electric vehicle market in September 2024

1. Sales trends of major pure electric manufacturers

In recent years, the pure electric passenger car market is still dominated by BYD, Tesla, and traditional independent brands, but the performance of new forces has improved markedly recently. In September 2024, the NEV passenger vehicle market diversified and the NEV performance of large groups was divided. The strong performers of pure electric vehicle companies in September 2024 include BYD, Tesla, Geely, Wuling, and Changan. Joint venture electric vehicle companies are weak.

The overall trend of the new forces is divided. NIO, Xiaopeng, and Zero Run are strong, while the overall performance of some of the new pure electric forces is average.

2. Wholesale of main pure electric models in September 2024

The relatively strong performance of pure electric models in September 2024 was products such as Tesla MODELY, Seagull, MODEL3, and BYD Yuan.

The BYD Seagull micro electric vehicle is extremely powerful and also meets entry requirements. Although the trend of the Wuling Hongguang Mini was weak in the early stages, the Hongguang Mini has improved markedly recently, and Bingguo and the like have strengthened dramatically. New micro electric vehicles such as the Geely Panda Mini and Seagull have performed well.

5. Mixed Market Analysis

1. Plug-in hybrid new energy vehicle companies' performance improved

The plug-in hybrid market trend was divided in September 2024. The main manufacturer was BYD, which is in the absolute lead. Due to high sales volume, BYD followed up with BYD's development mix of developments, such as Geely Automobile, Great Wall Motor, Changan Automobile, and SAIC-GM-Wuling, and competitors actively followed suit after BYD's price reduction. Recently, Geely and Great Wall's new hybrid products are very competitive.

The performance of joint ventures in the mixed market is relatively weak. Due to differences in the industrial chain, some joint ventures for plug-in hybrid models performed relatively well. Recently, European mixers have been weak, and luxury car mixes are not strong.

2. The wholesale of the main plug-in hybrid models is strong

Plug-in hybrid models reflect the characteristics of traditional domestic enterprises. Recently, sales of BYD Song, BYD Qin, and Destroyer 05 have been good. BYD's product matrix is rich, and the trend coverage is relatively large. European and American companies don't pay enough attention to the luxury mix market, and the sales trend is relatively stable.

Recently, pure electric and plug-in hybrid export models have performed well in the European market. There are many exports such as the BYD Seal, etc., which has given a slight boost to the European new energy market in China.

6. Analysis of the extension market

1. Performance of extended-range NEV companies

Extended range NEV companies have performed very well recently, and some car companies such as Ideal (02015) and Cyrus (601127.SH) have shown phased explosive growth characteristics. The ideal growth performance in September was very good. Extended range products such as Changan Automobile (000625.SZ) and Zero Run (09863) continued to grow rapidly.

2. Performance of extended-range new energy models

Gincon Celis's strong growth performance has recently become a dark horse. Ideal cars drive increased range growth, and actual users' demand is still a pure electric model.

Ideal L6, the main model in September 2024, continues to be the leading model, and the M7 is also trending very well. Competition in the main model market is gradually intensifying. Models with monthly sales of more than 10,000 units already have full competition, and the Changan series is growing very well.

The extended range electric vehicle Ideal L6 became the leading model. The performance of the Ideal L9 gradually slowed down, and the sales structure shifted to the L7. It shows that consumers still have good acceptance of the low-end growth range, and the cost performance advantage of the extension is still very important. Recently, Changan Deep Blue's range has been extended, and Qiyuan's pure electric power has also begun to be launched, forming different characteristics.