According to the Cinda Securities Research Report, there are many reasons to expect a rebound in September: the end of the interim reporting period, appreciation of the RMB, the rise in Hong Kong stocks, and a rebound in the prices of non-ferrous metals. These changes have been intense and optimistic since late May, and the subsequent rebound is likely to continue for some time. However, if it is to be reversed, strong profit-level logic is needed, because in the history of A-shares, the first bottom can boost policy liquidity, but the second bottom mostly needs to be profit-driven. At the bottom of 2005, the first bottom was the bottom formed by the equity distribution reform, and the second bottom was that nominal GDP had already rebounded. From the end of 2012 to mid-2014, both the first bottom and the second bottom were supported by signs of a rebound in profits, while the final third bottom was driven by a sharp inflow of residents' capital. The bottom of the market at the end of January 2016 occurred at the same time as the bottom of liquidity and the bottom of profit improvement after the risk of deleveraging. From the end of 2018 to the first quarter of 2020, the first bottom was the policy bottom after the private enterprise symposium. At the second bottom, profits in some industries improved dramatically, but overall profits were still weak. The third bottom was the bottom of the impact of the epidemic in early 2020, followed by profit improvements in post-pandemic recovery. Looking at it now, the conditions for a rebound have been gradually met, but the signs of improving profits are still weak compared to the second-lowest market in history, so it is estimated that it will also fluctuate after the rebound.

Zhitongcaijing · 09/01 10:25
According to the Cinda Securities Research Report, there are many reasons to expect a rebound in September: the end of the interim reporting period, appreciation of the RMB, the rise in Hong Kong stocks, and a rebound in the prices of non-ferrous metals. These changes have been intense and optimistic since late May, and the subsequent rebound is likely to continue for some time. However, if it is to be reversed, strong profit-level logic is needed, because in the history of A-shares, the first bottom can boost policy liquidity, but the second bottom mostly needs to be profit-driven. At the bottom of 2005, the first bottom was the bottom formed by the equity distribution reform, and the second bottom was that nominal GDP had already rebounded. From the end of 2012 to mid-2014, both the first bottom and the second bottom were supported by signs of a rebound in profits, while the final third bottom was driven by a sharp inflow of residents' capital. The bottom of the market at the end of January 2016 occurred at the same time as the bottom of liquidity and the bottom of profit improvement after the risk of deleveraging. From the end of 2018 to the first quarter of 2020, the first bottom was the policy bottom after the private enterprise symposium. At the second bottom, profits in some industries improved dramatically, but overall profits were still weak. The third bottom was the bottom of the impact of the epidemic in early 2020, followed by profit improvements in post-pandemic recovery. Looking at it now, the conditions for a rebound have been gradually met, but the signs of improving profits are still weak compared to the second-lowest market in history, so it is estimated that it will also fluctuate after the rebound.