Citi Trends, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:CTRN) 27% Share Price Plunge Could Signal Some Risk

Simply Wall St · 08/31 13:04

To the annoyance of some shareholders, Citi Trends, Inc. (NASDAQ:CTRN) shares are down a considerable 27% in the last month, which continues a horrid run for the company. The drop over the last 30 days has capped off a tough year for shareholders, with the share price down 36% in that time.

In spite of the heavy fall in price, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Citi Trends' P/S ratio of 0.2x, since the median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio for the Specialty Retail industry in the United States is also close to 0.4x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/S without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.

View our latest analysis for Citi Trends

ps-multiple-vs-industry
NasdaqGS:CTRN Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry August 31st 2024

What Does Citi Trends' P/S Mean For Shareholders?

Recent times haven't been great for Citi Trends as its revenue has been rising slower than most other companies. Perhaps the market is expecting future revenue performance to lift, which has kept the P/S from declining. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a relatively elevated price for a company with this sort of growth profile.

If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on Citi Trends.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The P/S Ratio?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the industry for P/S ratios like Citi Trends' to be considered reasonable.

If we review the last year of revenue, the company posted a result that saw barely any deviation from a year ago. Whilst it's an improvement, it wasn't enough to get the company out of the hole it was in, with revenue down 22% overall from three years ago. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

Looking ahead now, revenue is anticipated to climb by 2.6% per annum during the coming three years according to the three analysts following the company. That's shaping up to be materially lower than the 5.7% per annum growth forecast for the broader industry.

With this information, we find it interesting that Citi Trends is trading at a fairly similar P/S compared to the industry. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Maintaining these prices will be difficult to achieve as this level of revenue growth is likely to weigh down the shares eventually.

What Does Citi Trends' P/S Mean For Investors?

Following Citi Trends' share price tumble, its P/S is just clinging on to the industry median P/S. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

Given that Citi Trends' revenue growth projections are relatively subdued in comparison to the wider industry, it comes as a surprise to see it trading at its current P/S ratio. When we see companies with a relatively weaker revenue outlook compared to the industry, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/S lower. Circumstances like this present a risk to current and prospective investors who may see share prices fall if the low revenue growth impacts the sentiment.

Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Citi Trends that you should be aware of.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).