USRT

Who paid the rent? Real estate earnings season kicks off this week with more than 200 REITs and housing industry companies reporting earnings over the next month.Rent collection - a metric that was rarely reported in the pre-COVID-19 era - has become the most critical statistic tracked by investors due to its impact on dividend-paying capacity.Dividend cuts have been a major theme throughout the pandemic. 65 of 170 equity REITs have reduced their dividend, but since the start of Q3, dividend increases have outnumbered cuts.REITs enter third-quarter earnings season as the third-worst performing out of 11 GICS equity sectors. Improving rent collection and dividend commentary could be a positive catalyst to drive a recovery.While many commercial property sectors have struggled, several "essential" property sectors have thrived throughout the pandemic. We discuss the trends that we're watching this earnings season in each of the real estate property sectors.

U.S. equity markets finished flat this week as better-than-expected economic data and earnings results were offset by a continued fiscal stalemate and pressure on technology stocks amid a censorship controversy.The S&P 500 managed to eke out a 0.1% gain this week. The Nasdaq 100 ended the week on a four-day skid as Twitter and Facebook face Congressional subpoenas.Coming off its best two-week gain since April, a sharp sell-off among COVID-sensitive property sectors sent Equity REITs lower by 2.7% with 17 of 18 property sectors in negative territory.Retail sales were far stronger than expected in September, gaining for the fifth month in a row and setting new record highs. Retail sales are now higher by 5.4% from last year, led by the e-commerce and home improvement categories.While retail sales and housing data have exhibited continued strength, the employment recovery has shown signs of losing steam in recent weeks with Initial Jobless Claims coming in above estimates.

The high-flying cell tower sector has thrived throughout the pandemic. Cellular network capacity has been pushed to the limits as businesses, schools, and individuals stay connected via virtual interaction.5G is here. Apple's upcoming iPhone 12 launch represents the true "arrival" of 5G, the much-anticipated next-generation mobile network that promises to usher in a new era of technological innovation.Cell tower REITs will be the "hub" of these 5G networks, augmented by higher-density small cells. High-power macro towers provide the most economical mix of wide coverage and capacity.Fixed wireless broadband - using a cell network for home broadband - will be 5G’s true “killer app” and will fundamentally disrupt the telecommunications space, likely to the benefit of consumers.Cell tower REITs continue to benefit from favorable competitive positioning within the telecommunication sector. While these REITs are priced for perfection, low supply and high demand should translate into continued pricing power for cell tower REITs.

Healthcare REITs - which have been "ground-zero" of the coronavirus pandemic - have shown signs of life over the past quarter on stabilizing fundamentals and on hopes of a potential vaccine.For senior housing REITs, in particular, the pandemic has put a significant dent in near-term demand and has driven significantly higher expenses, but interim updates suggest the worst is behind them.Despite the headwinds, healthcare REITs reported near-perfect rent collection outside of the senior housing sub-sector. Five healthcare REITs have reduced dividends this year, while three have raised.The long-term outlook for senior housing remains intact as the long-awaited demographic-driven demand boom is finally arriving. Attitudes towards senior housing, however, need to be monitored.No healthcare REIT sector is entirely immune from the long-term consequences of the pandemic. Even the "safe haven" Medical Office Building sub-sector faces pressures from the dramatically increased use of telemedicine.

U.S. equity markets delivered their strongest week in three months, driven by solid economic data and renewed hope for a compromise on the ever-elusive fiscal stimulus deal.Following gains of 1.6% last week, the S&P 500 surged 3.9% this week, climbing back within 3% of all-time highs. The gains were again led by Small-Cap and Mid-Cap stocks.Coming-off its best week since July, equity REITs finished higher by another 1.3% this week with 9 of 18 property sectors in positive territory. "Essential" property sectors again led the way.Rent Paid: The National Multifamily Housing Council’s Rent Payment Tracker found that rent collection is back in line with pre-pandemic levels despite the dire forecasts to the contrary.Return to Work: Continuing Jobless Claims decreased to 10.98 million, down exactly one million from last week. Since the peak in early May at around 25 million, Continuing Claims have retreated by 13.9 million.

Manufactured Housing REITs have proven to be immune from coronavirus-related headwinds that have slammed much of the real estate sector, collecting nearly 100% of rents, while also boosting dividends this year.Driven by the macroeconomic tailwinds associated with the affordable housing shortage and favorable demographics, Manufactured Housing ("MH") REITs have been the best-performing real estate sector of the past decade.External growth through acquisitions has provided an added boost. Amid this housing shortage, MH REITs have begun investing in a new - but fundamentally similar - asset class: boat marinas.Headwinds become tailwinds - after a sharp slowdown in late-Spring, recreational vehicle and boat sales have smashed records this summer, while the U.S. housing market has roared back to life.MH REITs aren't cheap, but long-term fundamentals remain stellar for this "essential" property sector. Low supply and strong demographic-driven demand for housing continue to provide a compelling backdrop.

U.S. equity markets snapped a four-week losing streak on a frenetic week of economic data and political developments that culminated with the hospitalization of the President of the United States.Throwing yet another curveball into the home stretch of a highly contentious U.S. election season, the shocking developments on Friday overshadowed a generally strong week of economic data.Beginning the week on the cusp of "correction territory," the S&P 500 gained 1.6% this week. The Small-Cap and Mid-Cap indexes, however, surged nearly 5% while tech stocks lagged.Real estate equities and other economically-sensitive equity sectors were also among the leaders this week, seemingly unfazed by the October surprise. REITs rallied more than 5%, the best week since July.Homebuilders also surged following another stellar slate of housing data, including record-setting Pending Home Sales and metrics showing robust mortgage demand for home purchases as the housing industry continues to lead the recovery.

Based on the latest sales data reported by the U.S. Census Bureau, the preliminary nominal estimate of the market capitalization for new homes was $30.6 billion in August 2020.Perhaps more remarkably, the median sale price of new homes sold in the U.S. fell to an initial estimate of $312,700 in August 2020.With the trend for the sale prices of new homes generally flat to slightly falling over the last two years, the only way the market cap of new homes could increase is because of rising sales volumes.