SPVM

2.8% Growth Vs. 28% Recession Risk: The New Economic Landscape In 2024

Gross domestic product last quarter increased by 2.8%, a hair above average long-term growth. The Federal Reserve may have pulled off a soft landing in their fight against inflation. The Wall Street Journal survey puts the risk of recession over the next 12 months at just 28%. Real GDP grew at 2.7% in Q2 2024.

Is The Dramatic Yen Short Squeeze Over?

SPX 500: Further Weakness May Trigger A Medium-Term Global Risk-Off Event

Q2 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP At 2.8%, Above Forecast

U.S. GDP Growth Beats Expectations, But Fails To Dent The Market's Faith In Rate Cuts

U.S. GDP Growth Beats Expectations, But Fails To Dent The Market's Faith In Rate Cuts. GDP grew an annualised 2.8% in second-quarter 2024. Core PCE deflator rose 2.9% annualised versus the 2.7% expectation.

SPY: Don't Be The 'Greater Fool'

Country Risk: My 2024 Data Update

Richard Drury updated his most recent update of country risk for July 2024. He looks at political structure, exposure to war/violence, corruption, and protections for property rights. He argues that a trade-off between democracy and autocracy is more risky for investors. He says a democratic country is more likely to be stable and predictable.

Yen's Surge Continues, While PBOC Surprises With Another Rate Cut, And U.S. 2-30 Year Yield Curve Ends Inversion

Yen's Surge Continues, While PBOC Surprises With Another Rate Cut, And U.S. 2-30 Year Yield Curve Ends Inversion. The powerful short-covering rally of the yen and unwinding of carry trades continues. For the second time this week, the PBOC has surprised by cutting interest rates. The US 2-10-year yield curve is the least inverted in two years.