EURL

The Dollar Is Having One Of Its Best Days This Month

The dollar is having one of its best days of the month. The dollar is rising against all major currencies. European benchmark yields are mixed, with the 10-year gilt yield up almost three basis points. Imf revised forecast for china's gdp to 5.4% but the november pmi disappointed.

Feeling Really Rervous? How Eurozone FRNs Protect Against Higher For Longer ECB Rates

Inflation errors suggest higher for longer rates in the eurozone. Eurozone inflation is higher than after the gfc and covid shocks of 2008-09 and 2020-21. A rapid fall in ecb rates is less likely, barring a eurozone banking crisis. Floating rate notes offer protection against higher rates for longer.

A Boost For European Bondholders?

While spreads have tightened within europe’s periphery, that trend could continue in a soft-landing scenario. Some believe the ecb has completed its hiking cycle in line with a soft economic landing scenario. This could benefit bondholders aiming to profit from rolling down the yield curves in countries on europe's periphery. Spain and greece appear to be best poised to benefit.

Weekly Report: what happened at EURL last week (1120-1124)?

Flash PMIs Signal Jobs Decline As Economic Malaise Drifts Into Fourth Month

Business activity across the four largest developed economies - the g4 - fell for a fourth successive month in november. The decline was again led by the eurozone, though the downturn showed signs of bottoming out. Early pmi survey data for november from s&p global showed the major developed economies collectively contracting marginally.

Week Ahead: U.S. PCE Deflator, EMU CPI, China PMI, OPEC+, And COP28

Home market outlook forex analysis week ahead: u.s. Pce deflator, emu cpi, china pmi, opec+, and cop28. The dollar fell against all the g10 currencies last week. High-frequency economic data to watch includes the us cpi, eurozone's preliminary cpi, and china's pmi.

Short Note For The Day After Thanksgiving

Foreign exchange market remains subdued with major currencies fluctuating around +/- 0.2%. China considers new efforts to support the property market, leading to a rally in developer stocks. Uk's pmi was better than expected and the euro is near the high for the week. Peshkov says the foreign exchange market is subdued.

EUR Direction And Curve

Ecb is likely already at its interest rate peak and will likely cut rates in 2024, ing says. Inflation is still above 4% and the inflation challenge is not over. Structural factors are keeping long-end rates more elevated. Ing economists expect a 125bp reduction in ecb policy rates before mid-2025.