UOCT

The VIX Sent The Stock Market Higher, Not A 'Dovish' Fed

The stock market rally during Powell's press conference was due to the 2:35 PM ET VIX melt. Powell's recent press conference did not indicate a dovish stance on rate cuts in 2024. The immediate price action following the Fed meeting does not accurately reflect the market's longer-term direction.

Will U.S. Economy Stabilize In Q2 2024 After 2 Quarterly Downshifts?

Jobs: Household Report Is Way Below A Weak Headline Number

The BLS reported a gain of 175k jobs which was below expectations of about 200k. The Household Survey was high last month but came in way below the Headline number. The unemployment rate rose slightly to 3.9%. April saw a reversal where part-time jobs were replaced by full-time. The BLS report was released on the first Friday of every month.

The Jobs Report: A Soft Landing At Hand

Softer April Jobs Growth, Bulls And Doves Rejoice

April nonfarm payrolls increased by 175,000, below estimates, and pulled forward rate-cut expectations. Unemployment rate ticks up to 3.9% in April from 3.8% in March. Average hourly earnings came in softer than expected, signaling a decline in wage gains. Stocks futures jumped and yield plunged, but key data remains on tap.

April Jobs Report: Growth Cools Below 200K

Labor Department reports 175,000 jobs were added in April, well below expectations. Unemployment also ticked higher, while wage growth slowed further. Notable cooling occurred in both the healthcare and government sectors. The April jobs report is unlikely to change the Federal Reserve's current interest rate trajectory.

Federal Reserve Watch: The Beat Continues

Federal Reserve is committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective. The Fed will continue to reduce the size of its securities portfolio but at a slower pace starting in June 2024. $34.6 billion in securities came off of the Fed's balance sheet this past week.

Median Household Income In March 2024

Median household income increased in March 2024. Motio Research estimates the income earned by a typical American household increased by $906 (+1.2%) from its initial estimate of $77,265 for February 2024. The year-over-year growth rate of median household income has been essentially flat since September 2023.