Weekly Report: what happened at TZA last week (1120-1124)?

Keeping An Eye On The Unemployment Rate As A Recession Signal

Economy continues to experience respectable growth with third quarter gdp growth of 4.9%. The unemployment rate of 3.9% has crossed above its 12-month moving average. The recession probabilities index remains at a negative level. The economy is not in a recession but is showing signs of slowing.

New Recession Warnings

Signs of weakness are now appearing in coincident economic indicators in the us. The rise in continuous claims for unemployment insurance is consistent with a recession starting in 2023. The decline in the year-over-year growth rate of industrial production is also a sign of weakness. A soft landing scenario is becoming more popular.

Soft Selling A Hard Landing

The committee is not thinking of a recession in the near term. The full effects of monetary policy tightening have yet to be felt. Valuation estimates of companies with very high growth rates are sensitive to small changes in growth assumptions. John hussman says the u.s. Economy is in good shape.

Weekly Report: what happened at TZA last week (1113-1117)?

LABU, TZA and LABD among weekly ETF movers

Direxion daily regional banks bull 3x shares (dpst) and microsectors u.s. Big banks index (bnku) are among weeklyetf movers. Uvxy, labu and labd among weekly etf movers for nov. 18.

Economic Lessons From 2023

U.s. Real personal consumption has held up well in the face of higher interest rates because jobs kept growing. The big economic driver in 2023 was job growth. When the economy is adding jobs, people are willing to spend money. Labor force growth and job growth are expected to slow in 2024.

Quick Thoughts: Inflation-The Final Mile

Franklin templeton institute's stephen da-kuk says the resilience of the us economy and labor market following aggressive fed tightening since 2022 has been a surprise. Inflation-the final mile represents the achievement of a central bank’s inflation target. Stephen dover, cfa, says the fed's ability to reach the 2% inflation target is a challenge.

Weekly Report: what happened at TZA last week (1106-1110)?

U.S. Economic Slowdown Watch: November 7, 2023

Weekly Report: what happened at TZA last week (1030-1103)?

Job And Retail Sales Data: Always Good Until They Aren't

Peak 'Soft Landing'?

SPXU Is In Positive Drift Regime, But Beware Of Volatility

U.S. Recession Probability Continues Receding On All Hallow's Eve

Weekly Report: what happened at TZA last week (1023-1027)?

Economists No Longer Expect A Recession. Are They Right?

Weekly Report: what happened at TZA last week (1016-1020)?

Hoisington Investment Management Q3 2023 Review And Outlook

Is A U.S. Recession Coming?