What Is The U.S. National Debt's Risk To Investments?

Teen Employment Numbers Improve In March 2024

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, teen employment surged in March 2024. The number of teens Age 16 to 19 counted as employed jumped by 224,000 to reach 5,832,000. Number of Americans Age 18 and 19 with jobs rose 161,000 from the previous month to 3,756,000, the highest since April 2008.

The Stock Market Sell-Off May Have Only Just Begun

The S&P 500 has pulled back 4% from recent highs, but it's not due to geopolitical tension. Rates, the dollar, yen, and oil are not reflecting typical flight to safety characteristics. Markets are correcting for their massive blunder. Financial conditions are tightening, and the market is correcting its errors.

A (Un)Certain Framework

The FOMC has shifted away from specific metrics and adopted a more ambiguous strategy. The Fed has been using a varied set of targets for monetary policy, but the relevance of these data points is questioned. The FomC's outlook for inflation has become increasingly tilted to the upside.

The World Is Overweight U.S. Assets

The world is now overweighting U.S. Assets by 40% of gross domestic product. By 2012, the private sector held a sizeable short position in the U.s. Dollar. As a share of GDP, the world has shifted from overweighting foreign assets to underweighting them. The world has experienced superior growth and asset market performance in the last decade.

U.K. Wage Growth Proves Sticky Despite Rising Unemployment

Private-sector pay up 12% annualised on a month-on-month basis. The unemployment rate notched up to 4.2% from 3.9%. Wage growth is temporarily stuck in the 6% area. The Bank of England will wait until August to cut rates for the first time.

SPXS, INAV: Big ETF Inflows

Why Are U.S. Yields Rising? It's The Economy

Despite likely Fed rate cuts this year, U.S. Government bond yields have risen on the back of stronger-than-anticipated economic performance. Rising yields reflect the outperforming economy and the market's expectations for fewer interest rate cuts. The economy isn't showing any signs of slowing and the broader disinflation trend is intact.

Iran Attacks Israel - How Could Markets Be Impacted?

Consumers Binge Despite Higher Interest Rates, And The Fed Watches Them Nervously

Retail sales in March increased by 0.7% seasonally adjusted, with a year-over-year jump of 4.0%. Total retail sales jumped 10.1% in March from February to $712 billion. Ecommerce, food services, and general merchandise retailers were the biggest drivers of growth.

The Tides Of Time: The Impact Of Aging Demographics

Rate Cuts Off The Table For Near-Term Outlook: Futures Market

Fed funds futures indicate that interest rate cuts are unlikely in the months ahead. The policy-sensitive US 2-year Treasury yield has downgraded prospects for a near-term rate cut. The implied probability is heavily skewed toward no rate cuts for the next two FOMC meetings in May and June.

Moderately Bullish On 2024: Markets To Overcome Pessimism And Challenges

Earnings Growth Not Just About Tech

Weekly Report: what happened at SPXS last week (0408-0412)?

Iran Attacks Israel: What Middle East Turmoil Means For Markets

Iran launched missile and drone attacks against Israel over the weekend. Conflict in the Middle East has little effect on overall stock market performance but can impact the price of commodities, particularly oil. Continued tensions may benefit oil stocks, while gold is seen as a hedge against geopolitical chaos. The Middle East isn't likely to affect the overall markets.

A Black Swan In Plain Sight: The 10-Year Treasury Yield To 6%

Treasury yields are near 20-year highs, with implications for housing, autos, banks, tech, and the stock market. We could easily reach 6% for 10-year Treasury yields, 9% for mortgages, and 8% for car loans in 2024. This is a potential black swan for markets expecting a return to ultra-easy monetary policy.

A Stronger Dollar May Drive The S&P 500 Much Lower

Stronger dollar will affect financial conditions, earnings estimates for multinational companies, and lead to a contraction in the S&P 500's PE ratio. US CPI report and ECB policy meeting highlight divergent paths for the Fed and ECB, driving further dollar strength. Widening spreads between central banks and interest rates could send the euro lower and impact other currency pairs.

U.S. Resilience Scuppers The Case For Early Rate Cuts

US economy continues to grow strongly, but inflation is running too high for comfort. Inflation is still higher than the Fed's 2% target. Business surveys suggest the economy is weaker than reported by official data. Ongoing strength means a June rate cut looks unlikely for the U.S.

The U.S. Economy In Peril: Part 2 - Inflation

Inflation concerns and hotter-than-expected inflation data are reducing the outlook for rate cuts by the Fed. Wages remain high, adding to inflationary pressures and potentially hurting small businesses. The Fed has no control over spending on "green energy" and other factors that contribute to inflation. The latest CPI report is the third in a row with hotter than expected inflation.