Stagflation? Sticky Inflation? 7 Reasons For Investors To Be Positive

The Case Of The Disappearing Rate Cuts

The Media Infotainment Complex Strikes Back

The Canada - U.S. Rate Divergence And The Implications For Markets

Home Market Outlook Economy Analysis The Canada - U.S. Rate Divergence And The Implications For Markets. Michael O'Brien, managing director and head of the core Canadian equity team at TD Asset Management, looks at the likelihood of a divergence in US and Canadian interest rates and the potential impact on the economy.

Weekly Report: what happened at SCHQ last week (0422-0426)?

Inflation Declined In March, But Remains High

Inflation Declined In March, But Remains High. Inflation remains well above the Fed’s 2-percent average inflation target. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also remained elevated. The latest numbers will do little to sway members of the Federal Open Market Committee.

The Turn Is Coming

The 10yr minus 3mo Treasury rate is moving higher at a rapid pace. 88% of portfolio managers in the Bank of America Fund Managers Survey last week believed lower rates were ahead. I believe we are seeing a long-awaited turn away from the single focus of high tech as the only option for investors. Positive economic activity is the primary driver of the 10yr Treasury rate and core industrials.

Fed Likely To Hold Rates Steady And Warn Of The Risk Of Delay To Cuts

Inflation and strong activity and jobs numbers have pushed the timing of the first interest rate cut to December. The Federal Reserve will remain wary and signal that if inflation stays high, so will interest rates. ING sees an opportunity for a September rate cut. The Fed likely to hold rates steady and warn of the risk of a delay to cuts.

Rising Treasury Yields, Falling Oil Prices, And Hawkish Talk From The Fed

Home Market Outlook Economy Analysis Rising Treasury Yields, Falling Oil Prices, And Hawkish Talk From The Fed. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose to levels not seen since last November. Prices for West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell last week from recent highs despite tensions in the Middle East.

U.S. Economic Growth Up, Fed Rate Cuts Coming Later

Weekly Report: what happened at SCHQ last week (0415-0419)?

Why Haven't We Whipped Inflation Yet?

Consumer Price Index rose at an annualized rate of 4.5% over the last three months. Inflation accelerated during the first quarter. By conventional measures, money looks tight. The money supply suggests money is tight. Yet inflation accelerates. Alexander Salter says inflation remains elevated above the Federal Reserve's 2% target.

Dollar Dominance And The Ghosts Of 1997

Rate Cut Forecast Now Seen For September At Earliest

Rate Volatility's Market Implications

Higher-For-Longer Risk For Rates Drives Up Treasury Yields

Pre-FOMC: A Different Type Of Taper

Reflation Trade Is The New Bullish Narrative

Inflation Progress May Be Bumpy, But Is Likely To Continue

A (Un)Certain Framework