Brad Simpson On Rising Iran-Israel Tensions And The Implications For Markets

Brad Simpson, Chief Wealth Strategist at TD Wealth, speaks with MoneyTalk's Greg Bonnell about the rising tensions in the Middle East and the potential implications for markets. He says there is no good news for the financial markets from an Iran-Israel conflict. Simpson says the situation is well-telegraphed and will continue to build.

Turbulence Signaled By S&P 500 Dividend Futures Arrives

Home Market Outlook Today's Market Turbulence Signaled By S&P 500 Dividend Futures Arrives Apr. 19, 2024. The S&p 500 has dropped nearly four percent from the record high level it reached at the end of March 2024. Four weeks ago, CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicated investors expected a quarter of a rate cut.

Reflation Trade Is The New Bullish Narrative

Economic reflation is becoming the next bullish narrative as equity valuation increases continue to outpace earnings gains. The last time Wall Street focused on the reflation trade was in 2009. Interest rates, gold, and commodity prices have increased in the past few months. The house view for 2024 remains intact.

Where's The Downside Tipping Point For U.S. Stocks?

S&P 500 Sees More Fallout From Delayed Rate Cut Expectations

The repercussions of delayed rate cuts continued to shake out in the U.S. Stock market in the past week. The S&P 500 dropped a little over 1.5% from where it ended the previous week to close at 5,123.41 on Friday, 12 April 2024. Bad news came in the form of diminished earning expectations for big banks. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool now projects the Fed will hold the Federal Funds Rate steady until 31 July 2024.

Q1 '24 S&P 500 Earnings (And Johnson & Johnson): Expecting Another Normal Earnings Season

The "expected" Q1 '24 S&P 500 EPS growth has fallen to +2.7% as of Friday, April 12th. The “expected” quarterly growth rates follow a typical pattern. Only 29 companies have reported their Q1 ’24 earnings so far.

Weekly Report: what happened at PTMC last week (0408-0412)?

Brad Simpson On 'Vibecession' And What It's Telling Us About Market Sentiment

Margin Debt Surges As Bulls Leverage Bets

Margin debt levels have surged as bullish investors leverage their bets in the equity market. The increase in leverage represents increased risk-taking by investors in the stock market. Margin debt is not a technical indicator for trading markets. As consumer confidence improves, so does the speculative demand for equities.

TDAM CIO On Navigating The Markets After Strong Start To The First Quarter

With 10-Year Treasuries At 4.4%, How High Is Too High?

S&P 500 Pulls Back As Fed Officials Get Lost On Road To Rate Cuts

The S&P 500 pulled back from last week's record-high close. The index ended the first trading week of April 2024 at 5,204.34. On Monday, 1 April 2024, signs that oil prices are likely to rise pushed up inflation expectations. Several Fed officials responded by trying to dial back expectations for when they will start cutting interest rates.

Weekly Report: what happened at PTMC last week (0401-0405)?

S&P 500 Earnings: New Quarter, Will The 'Upside Surprise' Factor Continue In 2024?

Home Earnings Analysis S&P 500 Earnings: New Quarter, Will The 'Upside Surprise' Factor Continue In 2024? Q4 ’23 EPS ended at $57.16, up from $54.69 at the end of the previous quarter. The forward 4-quarter estimate jumped this week to $251.58 from $242.94.

S&P 500 And Bond Market Annual Returns; Style Box Update

Home Market Outlook Today's Market S&P 500 And Bond Market Annual Returns; Style Box Update. High-yield credit has done well in the last year in terms of absolute returns. From Jan. 2000 through March 2024, the annual return for the S&p 500 is 7.40%.

CDT Insider Sentiment Ratio March 2024: High Sentiment

Insider Sentiment Bounced Back in March. The composition of the market is exceptionally top-heavy with the top 10% of companies in the S&P 500. The excess earnings yield minus the 10-year Treasury rate is now negative for the first time since 2007. Since the October 2023 low, the market has made a year's worth of returns in 90 days.

Equities Shine Over Bonds

S&P 500's one-year trailing total return through the end of March was nearly triple the historical average of 11.8%. Long-term US Treasuries have been a loser of a decade for sure. Equity market returns have been well above average over the last five and ten years. The last two years have been below the long-term average.

S&P 500 Closes Its Best Quarter Since 2019 At Record High

Weekly Report: what happened at PTMC last week (0325-0329)?

S&P 500 Earnings: Market Cap Weight Vs. Earnings Weight Updated