Crude Tests $88.51 October Lows as Nat Gas Slips Under the 50 Day
Barchart·23h ago
Top 3 Things to Watch into the Energy Close
December crude at $88.51: A settlement above the October lows would hold Thursday’s break and could open $90.83 and the 50 day at $92.61. A settlement below Wednesday’s $86.53 settle could signal the bounce is fading and reopen $85.20 and the 100 day at $84.52.
December nat gas at the 50 day, $3.31, with storage at 9:30 Central: A build near the 62 bcf estimate, well above the 40 bcf five-year average, could press December below $3.22. A smaller build could lift it back through $3.40.
Weekend headline risk: With the president saying a deal with Iran isn’t needed, any sign of renewed escalation could lift December crude toward $90.83. Signs of progress in the back-channel talks could press it toward $86.53.
Energy Cross Asset Note
Crude is pulled between a harder line from Washington and a market that is filling back up. Brent gained more than 3% Thursday after the president said the US doesn’t need a deal with Iran and told the Vice President to focus on domestic issues instead of the talks. That cooled hopes for a quick diplomatic resolution, though Brent is still on track for a second weekly decline. The supply side moved the other way. The IEA said the global market will swing to a surplus this quarter for the first time since the war began. Gulf exports have recovered to 74% of prewar levels, Saudi output reached 10 million barrels a day in October, and Iraq hit a seven-year high. The agency raised its supply estimates, cut its full-year deficit by about 60%, and expects the surplus to widen significantly next year. IEA members will also release another 71 million barrels of emergency stocks through February. One sign of tightness remains: onshore inventories are still at their lowest in a decade. US crude and product inventories both rose last week, ending a five-week drawdown streak, and refinery runs hit a seasonal record. The risks haven’t gone away. Attacks on ships in and around Hormuz hit 36 in October, the most of the war, more ships were attacked this week, and Iran has extended its blackout on nuclear work. In nat gas, December posted its first settle above the 50 day since mid-October. Northeast production is down about 2 bcf/day as producers hold gas back, and analysts flagged the risk that funds cover their record short position into December expiry and Thanksgiving. Today’s storage report is expected to show another above-normal build, and the Midwest and Northeast run warm November 17 to 21 before turning more seasonal. Overseas, European gas rose on cool weather and outages, and spot LNG buying picked up in Asia. For clients, crude enters the weekend with real headline risk in both directions, so position size matters more than direction right now. Nat gas has broken its downtrend, but today’s storage number will test whether the breakout can hold.
Crude Oil - The Setup
Crude Oil - The Technicals
CRUDE OIL
Current Price: December WTI (CLEZ26) $88.27, down $0.48 (0.54%) | Session high $89.20, low $87.80
Chart Setup
December rallied $2.21 Thursday to settle at $88.74, its first close back above the $88.51 October lows since breaking them on Monday. This morning it reached $89.20, then slipped to $87.80 on the IEA’s surplus forecast, dipping back below $88.51. December has spent the week in an $83.88 to $89.20 range, bouncing off the May-June highs and the 100 day and now testing whether the October lows can turn back into support. The 100 day at $84.52 is still rising underneath. The 50 day at $92.61 and the 20 day at $95.26 remain well overhead.
Key Levels Above
$92.61 (50 day)
$90.83 (November 6 settle)
$89.20 (today’s high)
$88.74 (Thursday settle)
$88.51 (October lows)
Current Price: $88.27
Key Levels Below
$87.80 (today’s low)
$86.53 (Wednesday settle)
$85.20 (Thursday low)
$84.52 (100 day, with the May-June highs at $84.08)
$83.88 (November 10 low)
Bias
The October lows at $88.51 are the level to manage against. A settlement above them would hold Thursday’s break and could open $90.83 and the 50 day at $92.61. A settlement below Wednesday’s $86.53 settle could signal the bounce is fading and reopen $85.20 and the 100 day at $84.52. For sidelined traders, December is sitting right on the line heading into a weekend full of headline risk. Waiting for a settlement clearly above $88.51 or back below $86.53 may carry less risk than guessing the weekend news.
Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 11.09.26)
Below is a look at historical price averages for December Crude Oil futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30-year time frames over a 6-month time frame (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results). Red = 5y, Green = 10y, Blue = 15y, Yellow = 20y, Violet = 30y
Natural Gas - The Setup
Natural Gas - The Technicals
NATURAL GAS
Current Price: December Natural Gas (NGEZ26) $3.28, down 6.4 cents (1.92%) | Session high $3.37, low $3.26
Chart Setup
December rallied 12.5 cents Thursday, or 3.9%, to settle at $3.34. It was the first settle above the 50 day since mid-October, driven by lower Northeast production and short-covering risk. This morning it gave back part of that move, slipping to $3.26 and back under the 50 day at $3.31 ahead of the storage report. December has traded between $3.20 and $3.40 this week. The early-October low at $3.23 sits near the top of the old falling channel underneath, and the 20 day at $3.10 is flattening below that.
Key Levels Above
$3.51 (100 day)
$3.40 (Wednesday high)
$3.37 (today’s high)
$3.34 (Thursday settle)
$3.31 (50 day)
Current Price: $3.28
Key Levels Below
$3.26 (today’s low)
$3.23 (early-October low, near the top of the old falling channel)
$3.22 (Wednesday settle)
$3.10 (20 day)
Bias
The 50 day at $3.31 is the level to manage against. A settlement back above it would hold Thursday’s break and could open $3.40 and the 100 day at $3.51. A settlement below Wednesday’s $3.22 settle would put December back inside the old falling channel and could reopen the 20 day at $3.10. For sidelined traders, today’s storage report could decide which way this breaks. Waiting for the number and the settlement may carry less risk than positioning ahead of it.
Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 11.09.26)
Below is a look at historical price averages for December Natural Gas futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30-year time frames over a 6-month time frame (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results). Red = 5y, Green = 10y, Blue = 15y, Yellow = 20y, Violet = 30y
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