Crude Oil Sits on a Make or Break Level as Iran Talks Stall: Will Buyers Defend 85?

Oil Slips on Supply Recovery as the Iran Standoff Keeps Risk Alive

Crude oil has been drifting lower as political and supply developments outweigh the risk premium that built up through October. As of November 13, 2026, WTI futures were trading near $88 after touching a 10 week low near $86 on November 10, with prices on track for a second consecutive weekly decline.

The biggest driver was the US midterm elections. Democrats won control of both the House and the Senate on November 3, and WTI fell slightly over 10% on November 4 as traders bet the result would pressure President Trump to end the war with Iran sooner. Crude had risen more than 15% in October on escalation fears, and the unwinding was sharp, with a drop of roughly 15% over three sessions, the steepest since November 2021. Risk on flows were visible, as US stock indexes rallied while oil and energy shares fell. Vice President JD Vance blamed the war for the Republican losses, and Trump acknowledged that the war and higher fuel prices played a role. Democrats cannot act until they take control of Congress in January, so much of the move reflected hopes rather than concrete progress.

Those hopes have since been tested. On Monday, Trump called the war militarily effectively over after talks with Qatar’s prime minister, but on Thursday he said the US no longer needs a deal and directed Vance away from the negotiations. The US naval blockade of Iranian oil shipments and sanctions remain in place, and Iran says both must be lifted before direct talks.

Supply is the offsetting force. Saudi Arabia reported a 26% jump in October production, Iraq lifted output to a wartime record, and EIA data showed US crude inventories rose by 4.657 million barrels in the week ended November 6. Shipping risk remains high, with Verisk Maplecroft recording 36 confirmed attacks on commercial vessels in October, the highest monthly tally since the conflict began. Watch the OPEC+ meeting on November 29, where 2027 production policy is expected to be addressed.

What Has the Market Done?

• From the end of Jun to the end of Oct, buyers responded aggressively from the 67 area (Daily level 5), and the market trended up as buyers stepped up bids and made higher highs and higher lows with each rotation, as seen by the rising trend line.
• At the end of Oct, however, buyers failed to make a higher high, as sellers held offers at the prior swing high at 105 area (Daily level 2).
• Coupled with buyers failing to step up bids, the rising trend line was broken, and prices rotated down to the 85 area (Daily level 3), which is confluent with yearly VWAP.
• This marked a shift in market structure from uptrend to sideways consolidation.
• Notably, some buying response can be seen at the 85 area, which makes it the key level for the weeks ahead.

What to Expect in the Coming Weeks

Watch the 85 area (Daily level 3), which is confluent with yearly VWAP. The scenarios below are framed for the next few weeks to a month.

Bullish Scenario

• If buyers are able to defend and hold bids at the 85 area, expect a possible rotation back up to the 95 area (Mid of range).
• If sellers do not respond here, expect a further possible move up through the consolidation range to the 105 area (Daily level 2), where sellers are expected to respond.
• Above that, expect a further possible probe up to the 110 level (Daily level 1).
• A possible trigger for this scenario is a decisive return to escalation, such as renewed large-scale US strikes on Iran, possibly alongside Israel, following Trump’s pullback from negotiations, which would challenge the peace hopes that drove the sell-off after the midterms. 

Neutral Scenario

• If sellers respond at the 95 area (Mid of range) while buyers defend the 85 area, expect a two-way rotation between these two levels as the market establishes value lower.
• A possible supporting condition for this scenario is a continued stalemate, with the blockade in place and no formal talks, while recovering Saudi and Iraqi output offsets shipping risks.

Bearish Scenario

• If buyers fail to defend the 85 area, expect a move down to 80 (minor level) initially, and possibly a subsequent move down to the 75 area (Daily level 4).
• A possible trigger for this scenario is a diplomatic breakthrough that eases the blockade and improves tanker flows, or another larger than expected US crude inventory build.

Conclusion

Technically, the market has moved from a trending advance to a rotation lower, with the 85 area (Daily level 3) now the line in the sand. Fundamentally, oil is balancing a recovery in Middle East supply and a US inventory build against a blockade, stalled diplomacy and persistent shipping attacks. Watch the reaction at the 85 area alongside Iran headlines and the November 29 OPEC+ meeting. Will buyers defend this level and rotate back toward the middle of the range, or will supply recovery pull the market lower?

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Disclaimer:

This article is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. The analysis presented reflects the author’s market observations and opinions at the time of writing and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any futures contract, security, or financial instrument. Futures trading involves significant risk and is not suitable for all market participants. Losses may exceed initial margin deposits, and market conditions can change rapidly.

Any scenarios, levels, or market expectations discussed are hypothetical in nature and are intended solely to illustrate potential market behavior. They do not represent actual trading results and should not be interpreted as guarantees of future performance. Past performance, market behavior, or historical price action are not indicative of future outcomes.

Readers are solely responsible for their own trading decisions and risk management. Always conduct independent research, consider your financial situation and risk tolerance, and consult with a qualified financial professional, if necessary, before engaging in futures or derivatives trading.