Janus International Group, Inc. Just Missed Earnings; Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now
Shareholders in Janus International Group, Inc. (NYSE:JBI) had a terrible week, as shares crashed 21% to US$3.75 in the week since its latest third-quarter results. Revenues fell 9.3% short of expectations, at US$213m. Earnings correspondingly dipped, with Janus International Group reporting a statutory loss of US$0.10 per share, whereas the analysts had previously modelled a profit in this period. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Janus International Group after the latest results.
After the latest results, the consensus from Janus International Group's five analysts is for revenues of US$828.7m in 2027, which would reflect a small 7.5% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 264% to US$0.13. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$951.5m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.38 in 2027. It looks like sentiment has declined substantially in the aftermath of these results, with a substantial drop in revenue estimates and a pretty serious reduction to earnings per share numbers as well.
See our latest analysis for Janus International Group
It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 28% to US$5.36. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Janus International Group analyst has a price target of US$7.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$4.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 6.0% annualised decline to the end of 2027. That is a notable change from historical growth of 1.1% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 6.4% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Janus International Group is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Janus International Group going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Even so, be aware that Janus International Group is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is a bit concerning...
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