Exagen Inc. (NASDAQ:XGN) Third-Quarter Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For Next Year
One of the biggest stories of last week was how Exagen Inc. (NASDAQ:XGN) shares plunged 42% in the week since its latest quarterly results, closing yesterday at US$4.41. Revenues were in line with expectations, at US$18m, while statutory losses ballooned to US$0.25 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Exagen's seven analysts is for revenues of US$80.8m in 2027. This reflects a notable 12% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 26% to US$0.56. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$81.5m and US$0.52 per share in losses. Overall it looks as though the analysts were a bit mixed on the latest consensus updates. Although revenue forecasts held steady, the consensus also made a moderate increase in its losses per share forecasts.
View our latest analysis for Exagen
As a result, there was no major change to the consensus price target of US$10.29, with the analysts implicitly confirming that the business looks to be performing in line with expectations, despite higher forecast losses. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Exagen at US$12.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$9.00. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Exagen is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The period to the end of 2027 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 9.3% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 9.5% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry (in aggregate), which analyst estimates suggest will see revenues grow 22% annually. So although Exagen is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's forecast to grow slower than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Exagen. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Exagen. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Exagen analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
It is also worth noting that we have found 3 warning signs for Exagen that you need to take into consideration.
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