IEA Lowers 2026 Global Oil Demand Forecast Amid Continued Disruptions, Expects Recovery in 2027

04:54 AM EST, 11/13/2026 (MT Newswires) -- The International Energy Agency further lowered its 2026 global oil demand outlook amid high fuel prices and continued disruptions to exports of refined products and liquefied petroleum gas from the Gulf due to the US-Iran war. In its November oil market report released Friday, the IEA said global oil demand is now projected to decrease by 2.7 million barrels per day on average this year, against the previous month's forecast of 2.6 million barrels per day. The pace of contraction in demand, however, is expected to ease in the fourth quarter, compared with declines logged in the prior two quarters. Demand is then estimated to recover by 2 million barrels of oil per day in 2027. Meanwhile, global supply is anticipated to see a decline of 4.8 million barrels of oil per day in 2026, before rebounding by 6.6 million barrels per day to 108.1 million barrels per day on average in the next year. "The oil market is showing tentative signs of rebalancing, with global oil supplies surpassing demand for the first time since the outbreak of the war in Iran. Observed oil inventories rose by 52 mb, or 1.7 mb/d, in October as Gulf exports recovered much faster than global oil demand," the IEA said. "For now, the severe tightness in product supply, especially for diesel, remains the overriding concern of the broader market and consumers ... Notably, the accelerated release of IEA emergency diesel stocks over the coming months will provide a critical bridge across the supply gap until the global refinery system and product output recover."