Results: Subaru Corporation Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates
Subaru Corporation (TSE:7270) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 2.9% to JP¥2,801 in the week after its latest interim results. Revenues were JP¥2.5t, approximately in line with expectations, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) performed substantially better. EPS of JP¥145 were also better than expected, beating analyst predictions by 11%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Subaru from 16 analysts is for revenues of JP¥5.13t in 2027. If met, it would imply a credible 4.5% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 59% to JP¥237. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥5.16t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥236 in 2027. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
See our latest analysis for Subaru
There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of JP¥2,660, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Subaru analyst has a price target of JP¥3,450 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥1,900. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Subaru'shistorical trends, as the 9.1% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2027 is roughly in line with the 11% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 3.1% annually. So although Subaru is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥2,660, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Subaru analysts - going out to 2029, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Plus, you should also learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Subaru .
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