Applied Materials Has Plunged 21% Ahead of Earnings. Can Q4 Earnings Save the Rally?

Applied Materials heads into Q4 earnings tonight with investors looking for reassurance that the AI semiconductor spending boom still has room to run.

Shares have fallen 21.24% over the past month, raising the stakes for management’s 2027 outlook.

Here’s what investors are watching:

• Revenue: Fiscal Q4 guidance of approximately $10.25 billion, implying 51% growth.
• AI demand: DRAM and foundry spending remain critical growth drivers.
• Margins: After 13 consecutive quarters of gross margin expansion, hiring expenses, ramp costs, and display mix could pressure profitability.
• 2027 outlook: Investors want evidence that the semiconductor equipment spending cycle can sustain its momentum.

Quick Read

Trading at roughly 34x earnings, Applied Materials needs to convince investors that AI-driven semiconductor investment remains a multiyear opportunity.

A strong quarter paired with bullish 2027 guidance could help reverse the recent selloff. But cautious commentary on capacity expansion or clean-room constraints could give investors another reason to sell.