AUDUSD: Five Waves Down From 0.7068, Watching the March Lows

AUDUSD is trading around 0.682, right at this year's March lows. A hotter-than-expected US inflation report has markets pricing a December Fed rate hike, and the dollar has stayed firm on the back of that. The Reserve Bank of Australia did raise the cash rate at its November meeting, but that has not been enough to support the Aussie against a stronger US dollar. The next Australian labour-force report is due next week, so the pair may stay sensitive to the data.

As expected, AUDUSD has moved to new lows, and we can now clearly count five waves down from the 0.7068 swing highs. On the 4-hour chart, that decline is unfolding inside a descending channel. A bounce in wave four stalled near the 0.6930 area we have marked as a bullish level, and the market has turned lower again. So it is possible that we are approaching the late stages of this impulsive sell-off, with wave five potentially coming to an end. Price is now retesting the March 2026 lows near 0.6800, where the market could finally stabilize, at least for a temporary three-wave rebound.

Looking at the higher-timeframe daily chart, we appear to be approaching some important support levels for this year. The decline from the 2026 highs is tracking as a counter-trend A-B-C, and wave C is coming into the support zone around the March lows, near 0.6838. That higher-timeframe view still holds. However, only a break above 0.6930 would provide bullish confirmation that a potential low is in place. Until then, the trend remains bearish.

In the big picture, the bullish impulse from 0.5518 in 2020, followed by the current sideways price action, looks like a pause within the recovery, with potential for more gains ahead. That is why a retest of the March lows could still be a place where a temporary rebound develops. We just need a break above 0.6930 before we can confirm that a low is in.

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Trade well,
GH