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AMD Bounced 10% but Is Still Down 32% in a Month. Wedbush Sees $600

24/7 Wall St. · 2d ago

Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) rose 9.7% today to $443.61. Shares are still down 31.69% over the past month. The 24/7 Wall St. price target for AMD sits at $471.81, indicating 6.36% upside. The model rates the stock a buy with high confidence.

An infographic titled 'AMD 12-Month Price Prediction' by 24/7 Wall St. on a dark green background. It shows AMD's current price at $443.61 (as of 2026-11-06) and a 'BUY' recommendation with a price target of $471.81, indicating a +6.36% upside and a 90% confidence level. A 'How We Got There' section displays a stacked bar chart showing a weighted blend of Forward P/E ($281.96, 50%), Analyst Consensus ($649.38, 30%), and Trailing P/E ($412.37, 20%), totaling $418.27. An 'Our Adjustments' section shows arrows indicating positive adjustments for Sector Momentum & Analyst Consensus and Earnings Growth, and a negative adjustment for Volatility & Sentiment, transforming the $418.27 initial blend into the $471.81 price target, with a 247Factor Adjustment of 1.128x. Below, a green 'BULL CASE' box presents potential upside to $673.86 (+52%) with reasons like Data Center revenue growth, Helios AI demand, and strong analyst ratings. A red 'BEAR CASE' box presents potential downside to $381.09 (-14%) with reasons including FCF decline, inventory increase, gaming revenue drop, rising costs, and high trailing P/E. The bottom line reiterates 'BUY -> $471.81 (+6.36%)'.24/7 Wall St. 24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary Metric Value Current Price $443.61 Price Target from 24/7 Wall St. $471.81 Upside 6.36% Recommendation BUY Confidence Level 90%

Our target is well below the Wedbush figure of $600. It is also below the Wall Street consensus of $648.24. That gap comes from how heavily our model leans on forward earnings. Even so, AMD has a clear path toward the top of our range after its record quarter.

Record Quarter Collides With a Sharp AI Selloff

AMD is down 21.68% over the past week but up 107.14% year to date. The stock trades 32.6% below its 52-week high of $658.52. On Thursday, a broad AI selloff gave the NASDAQ its worst day since April 2025. Chip stocks bounced back today.

The selloff came right after strong results. Third-quarter revenue rose 44.68% to $13.377 billion, ahead of the $13.085 billion estimate. Non-GAAP EPS of $2.09 beat the $1.9366 consensus. Data Center sales rose 97% to $8.546 billion. Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson said the results “met the bar.”

Why Bulls See $674 Within Reach

AMD expects fourth-quarter revenue of about $17 billion, which would be roughly 66% growth. Management also projects 2027 revenue growth of more than 80%.

Several major AI customers, including Anthropic and OpenAI, have Helios racks running. CEO Lisa Su said on the call that “demand is higher than supply.” Wall Street ratings stand at 5 Strong Buys, 39 Buys and 11 Holds, with no Sells. The bull case reaches $673.86.

 

Cash Flow Strain Tests the Bulls

Free cash flow fell 71% to $554 million. Inventory grew 35% from the prior quarter. Gaming sales dropped 40%, and AMD expects a double-digit fall in the PC market in 2027. In AMD’s defense, management says the inventory build supports data center demand.

GAAP EPS of $1.46 also includes a non-cash warrant charge. Rising memory costs and a trailing P/E of 104 remain real risks. The bear case sits at $381.09.

How AMD Stacks Up Against Its Peers Company Latest Qtr Revenue Growth Latest Qtr Free Cash Flow AMD 44.68% $554M NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) 105.85% $21.341B Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) 85.5% $13.665B

The GPU leader that AMD’s Instinct chips compete against directly is NVIDIA. The stock trades at a P/E of 37 with a 75% non-GAAP gross margin. AMD guides to about 55%. At that discount in profitability, a premium multiple for AMD needs the Helios ramp to work.

Broadcom is the custom-chip threat to general-purpose GPUs. Its AI semiconductor revenue rose 221% to $16.70 billion. Both peers turn far more of their revenue into cash, which supports our more conservative target.

Upside Is Real but Modest at Today’s Price

The 24/7 Wall St. price target of $471.81 comes with a buy rating and 90% confidence. The fourth-quarter guidance is what tips the scale.

I would turn more constructive if Helios shipments drive data center sales up about 50% from the third quarter. I would grow cautious if free cash flow keeps contracting while inventory builds. The fundamentals look stronger than the selloff indicating, at least for now.

Year Price Target from 24/7 Wall St. 2026 $425.48 2027 $483.72 2028 $534.04 2029 $591.60 2030 $635.15

AMD needs to keep executing on its current strategy for these projections to hold. The MI500 roadmap may lift results well above these figures. Supply limits or a pullback in AI spending could leave them short. The traits that showed up early in past chip winners are the ones we cataloged in a free playbook on spotting the next Nvidia.