HK$3.45 defense+fundamentals long-term support Maoyan Entertainment (01896) will stabilize above the “maintenance” threshold?
The Maoyan Entertainment (01896) repurchase plan is gradually being implemented. On November 4, the company repurchased 800,000 shares of common stock on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange at a total price of HK$2,858,200. The repurchase of shares is intended to be cancelled. On October 23, 740,000 common shares were repurchased at a total price of HK$2,588,200, to be cancelled.
As we all know, on October 5, Maogan issued an announcement stating that the company will repurchase up to 116 million shares and use no more than HK$250 million in capital. As of November 4, approximately 3.38 million shares were repurchased under the June authorization, accounting for 0.291% of the shares issued on the day of authorization.
At the same time as the real money repurchase was carried out, the “Baotong” situation of Maogan Entertainment also seemed to have ushered in a “dawn.”
HK$3.45 is the bottom line of defense
According to the Zhitong Finance App, there is a marked divergence between Maoyan Entertainment's secondary market performance and active repurchase activity. By the close of trading on November 11, its moving averages had a standard bearish arrangement: the 10-day, 60-day and 180-day EMAs had fallen to around HK$3.6, HK$3.9 and HK$4.9, respectively, and the stock price was firmly suppressed.
However, technical suppression was reversed with the release of key predictive data. According to the “Hong Kong Stock Connect Withdrawal” forecast of the Zhitong Finance App, the next Hong Kong Stock Connect withdrawal threshold will drop to HK$5.91 billion. According to this estimate, as of November 11, the average daily closing price of Maoyan Entertainment during the year was HK$5.3, corresponding to an average daily market value of HK$6.22 billion, with an average daily turnover rate of 0.5%. If HK$5.91 billion is used as the reference target for December 31, the current average daily market value of Cat Eye has reached the target. Not only is there no gap, but there is also a safety cushion of HK$310 million. The stock price should run above HK$3.45 for the rest of the trading day, and around HK$3.5 to HK$3.7 at the core.
Looking at the implementation path, this means that there is currently no need to force the stock price to break through the long-term moving average arranged by bears; it only needs to maintain fluctuation in the current EMA dense area (around HK$3.6).
Under the protection of this “safety cushion,” the micromarket since November has sent a clear signal that the main capital is actively “backing up the backbone.” Looking at the volume-price structure, a ranged increase of 8.36% was achieved within 8 trading days, with 5 increases and 3 declines. The number of positive days was the same as the number of negative days (4 days each), but the positive amount (18.6911 million) was significantly greater than the negative amount (1.527 million). In a stock game where the average daily turnover is only at the level of 10 million, this “positive amount over negative volume” structure shows that the participation and willingness of capital to take on rising days is far stronger than on falling days, and the main capital showed clear signs of net absorption and promotion in the micro market.
Specifically, on November 5, the trading volume suddenly expanded to 7.23,000 shares (range volume), driving the stock price to rise strongly by 4.06% to HK$3.72, revealing the clear intention of the main players to take the initiative to attack and test pressure. Over the next two days, although the stock price declined slightly, the trading volume quickly shrunk to the 3.4 million level, characterized by a “decline in price decline”. The core signal came on November 10, when the trading volume shrunk drastically to 1.184 million shares (range volume), but the closing price hit a new high of HK$3.74. This not only confirmed that the upward selling pressure was extremely light, but also revealed the extremely high chip lock-up rate of the main players in the current range. Taken together, the main capital showed a strong will to go long and the ability to protect the plate through the rhythm of “breaking through pulse volume - shrinking and washing dishes - new ground volume”.
While the market value alert was temporarily lifted, the liquidity dimension also provided safety confirmation. The average monthly turnover rate of Maogan Entertainment over the past 3 months was about 0.320%, far higher than the Hong Kong Stock Connect liquidity exclusion line of 0.1%. Currently, no liquidity exclusion conditions have been triggered at all.
Taken together, under the new threshold forecast of HK$5.91 billion, the two major assessment scales of Maogan's market value and liquidity are already at safe levels. Can the future main players continue to stabilize their chips through a high control panel pace within the comfort zone of HK$3.5 to HK$3.7. It determines whether the “Baotong” basic disk is stable or not.
Underpinned fundamentals and forward signals from major shareholders
As mentioned above, under the expected threshold of HK$5.91 billion, the market capitalization alert for Maoyan Entertainment has been temporarily lifted, and the HK$3.45 hard limit has given the market a great deal of breathing room. Furthermore, looking at its fundamentals and majority shareholder dimensions, we will find that these factors form a solid “bottom support” for the company.
Let's take a look at the business data first; the benefits are still there. The total revenue for the first half of 2026 was 1.79 billion yuan, and the adjusted net profit was only 21 million yuan; the national movie box office was 17.356 billion yuan, down 40.6% from the previous year, a decrease of 40.6%. However, Maoyan controlled the distribution of 28 films, and the number of main distributors and box office coverage reached a record high of the same period. Online entertainment ticketing revenue was 834 million yuan, a decrease of 29.3%, less than 40.6% of the market, and the distribution share strengthened during the contraction.
Performance ticketing is also growing at a steady rate. The national commercial performance box office increased 9.41% year on year. The GMV growth rate for online shows of Maogan surpassed the industry. GMV for sports and e-sports events increased by more than 150% and 80% year-on-year respectively; IP commercialization has established cooperation with over 3,300 cinemas and has been authorized by various Global and Disney movie projects. However, advertising services and other revenue, including IP derivatives, was 67.2 million yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year decrease of 19.32%, accounting for only 3.75% of total revenue.
Looking at shareholders' and institutional expectations, it also points to the long term. Tencent increased its holdings by 7.619,500 shares on August 21, 2026, and the shareholding ratio rose to 14.03%; while Meituan reduced its holdings and withdrew from the ranks of major shareholders on April 29. The increase in industrial capital follows a long-term value judgment, and the performance and IP business can wait several quarters to prove their profitability, but the release of this signal is not enough to immediately turn into a market purchase. Furthermore, based on the 2026 adjusted net profit forecast of $430 million, Huachuang Securities gave a target market value of HK$6.5 billion and a target price of HK$551. Although the target market value is impressive, the second half of the year will require an order of magnitude profit acceleration to be realized.
In summary, the current situation of Maogan Entertainment has changed — the new threshold of HK$5.91 billion has brought the company's “maintenance” success close at hand; while a stable business base and industrial shareholders' hedging positions have provided fundamental support for the fluctuation range of HK$3.5 to HK$3.7. Next, as long as the main capital can keep chips locked at the bottom so that the market value remains stable above the passing line, Maogan Entertainment will have plenty of time to wait for the movie market to pick up, and the performance and IP business to actually turn into profit on the report.