Bitcoin 'ran out of fuel': stablecoins plummeted by $142 billion and hedging turned

According to Woofun AI, the Bitcoin market structure is facing a severe test. The report published by Glassnode on November 11, 2026 issued a severe warning of “fuel exhaustion.” Author Jamie Redman pointed out that although large investors have begun to attract funds, continued capital outflows and changes in hedging strategies are limiting the price rebound.

The core of the liquidity crisis is a sharp contraction in stablecoin supply and the withdrawal of institutional capital. According to Glassnode's analysis, the price of Bitcoin has fallen below the $75,600 short-term holding cost benchmark, and its performance is lagging behind the stock market, and the funds that may have driven the price increase are constantly being lost. The stablecoin supply is shrinking at the fastest rate since June 2022, and data compiled by Woofun AI shows that the stablecoin supply has declined by $142 billion over the past 30 days.

Meanwhile, a Bitcoin spot ETF in the US market showed a net redemption of $20 billion over 16 trading days. Furthermore, the transaction price of Bitcoin on the Coinbase (COIN.US) platform was discounted, and the discount rate reached the highest level since February, which further heightened the market's concerns about liquidity.

An analysis of the position structure revealed the plight of short-term holders and key resistance levels. Currently, about 35% of short-term holders can still profit from Bitcoin, and when the price reached a high in September, almost all such holders were able to profit. Glassnode found that there is a large amount of inventory for sale around $83,600, which may provide loss-making investors with an exit opportunity, making it more difficult for Bitcoin to rebound.

However, the price drop also eliminated most long-term leveraged positions close to the current price, and the buying power in the order book exceeded the selling power. Wallet groups holding 100 to 1,000 bitcoins and 1,000 to 10,000 bitcoins have resumed attracting funds, while smaller investors and the largest holders continue to sell off. There is a large number of pending buy-outs between $68,000 and $72,500, while there is a concentrated liquidation risk between $59,500 and $62,600. Above the current price, liquidity in the order book is relatively scarce; there is not much liquidity until around $84,000, while areas below the current price are concentrated around $87,500 for liquidation.

Trend support and key technical indicators provide a benchmark reference for the market. Glassnode said that the September price high was the first higher since reaching a new all-time high (ATH) in 2025, and this upward trend will continue as long as the price remains above the June low of $58,500. Key technical indicators it gave include a short-term holding cost benchmark of $75,600, a true market average of $77,500, and Bitcoin's closing price target of $77,800 on election day. Together, these indicators form a key reference frame for the current long and short market game, and investors need to pay close attention to price performance at these key levels.

The options market overview shows a balance between the distribution of open positions and the ratio of long and short positions. Coinglass's derivatives data shows that the market is seeking a balance between long-term optimism and short-term risk prevention. The total number of open contracts for Bitcoin options is 439,966 bitcoins worth approximately $33 billion, of which call options account for 55.72% and put options account for 44.28%. The resulting ratio of bearish to bullish options is 0.79, indicating that the upward trend still has a slight advantage. Deribit, the largest options trading platform by trading volume, has the largest number of open contracts. Its $81,000 call option due on November 13 had an open contract volume of 8,305.9 bitcoins, followed by a $80,000 call option due on December 25, with an outstanding contract volume of 8,113.9 bitcoins, followed by a $100,000 call option with an outstanding contract volume of 6,612.7 bitcoins.

Recent options trading details revealed a comparison between bearish preferences and historical data. In the December options market, there were also $60,000 put options for 6,520.6 bitcoins, $120,000 call options for 5,842.1 bitcoins, $40,000 put options for 5,518.8 bitcoins, and $90,000 call options for 5,403.9 bitcoins.

There are also 5,200.8 Bitcoin call options of $84,000 due on November 13. The total nominal value of the $81,000 and $84,000 options contracts due in November is around $1 billion, but Bitcoin needs to rebound sharply before it expires on Friday to reach these price levels. The recent trading situation appears to be more cautious. Of the options trading volume of 45,210 bitcoins in 24 hours, put options accounted for 50.32%, slightly higher than 49.68% of call options.

Trading activity was mainly concentrated between November 12 and 13, with contract prices between $72,000 and $75,500. The most active of these are the $72,000 and $73,000 put options on the Deribit platform, with trading volumes of 730.3 bitcoins and 715.8 bitcoins, respectively. Other notable contracts include a $100,000 call option due on the Deribit platform on November 27, with a trading volume of 868.3 bitcoins, and a $50,000 put option due on December 25, with a trading volume of 673.8 bitcoins.

Judging from historical data, the number of open options contracts peaked at about US$65 billion in October 2025, rapidly declined to about US$25 billion after the contract expired in December, and then briefly rebounded to about US$53 billion in September 2026. The Deribit platform's trading volume also reached around $11.5 billion in September, and dropped to around $5 billion in November 2026.

The predictive market divergence is reflected in Polymarket's and Kalshi's probability distributions. The Polymarket platform's November Bitcoin price prediction market has 28 forecast targets, with a total participation amount of US$5.17 million. Traders think the probability of Bitcoin hitting $75,000 is 91%, the probability of hitting $77,500 is 62%, and the probability of hitting $80,000 is 39%. In contrast, the probability of the price falling to $72,500 is 73%, the probability of falling to $70,000 is 50%, and the probability of falling to $65,000 is only 18%. However, there is only a 1% chance that the price will hit $100,000.

This is predicted probability data on the Polymarket platform at 1:40 p.m. ET on November 11, 2026. The Polymarket platform's broader 2026 price prediction market attracted a cumulative total of $84.26 million in bets. The predicted probabilities are: the probability of Bitcoin hitting $70,000 is 61%, the probability of hitting $65,000 is 34%, and the probability of hitting $60,000 is 20%. For upward targets, the probability of Bitcoin hitting $90,000 is 18%, the probability of hitting $100,000 is 6%, and the probability of hitting $250,000 is less than 1%.

Meanwhile, the bet amount on the Kalshi platform's highest price prediction market in November was $1.34 million, of which the probability of Bitcoin exceeding $82,500 was 19%, the probability of over $85,000 was 15%, and the probability of over $87,500 was 8%. Another year-end price settlement forecast market worth $46.75 million on the Kalshi platform favors a narrower price range. The probability for the $70,000 to $74,999.99 price range is 18.9%, the $75,000-$79,999.99 price band probability is 18.5%, and the $65,000-$69,999.99 price band probability is 13%. It's important to note that these prediction contracts measure different results. The price prediction contract on the Polymarket platform is settled when the price reaches a specified threshold, while the Kalshi platform's year-end price prediction market focuses on the actual closing price range of Bitcoin.

The comprehensive outlook shows the complementarity of demand verification challenges and institutional dynamics. Deutsche Bank has incorporated Bitcoin escrow services into its institutional banking system, and Germany's largest bank, Deutsche Bank (DB.US), has officially launched digital asset custody services for institutional customers across Europe, incorporating Bitcoin into its scope of services.

Although large investors are beginning to attract funds, the overall flow of capital is still unfavorable. Bitcoin's current challenge is not only to attract buyers, but also to prove that new demand is sufficient to withstand the selling pressure that already exists in its market structure.