Interest rates soared due to CPI exceeding expectations, and BTC's rebound was weak

According to Woofun AI, the US stock market showed a significant rebound, driven by strong AI-related technology stocks, yet Bitcoin (BTC) failed to follow this upward trend and instead continued to fall into a downward trend. The core reason for this divergence in macro asset performance is that the increase in the US CPI (Consumer Price Index) exceeded market expectations, which directly led to a sharp rise in interest rates on treasury bonds, which in turn increased the possibility of further interest rate hikes. Analysts pointed out that short-term investors' stop-loss sell-off behavior has further exacerbated the difficulty of Bitcoin's price recovery. As of 8:17 a.m. on the 12th, the transaction price of Bitcoin on the Korean digital asset trading platform Upbit was 180,000 won, down 0.13% from the price at 9 a.m. the previous day. Meanwhile, on the global trading platform Binance, its price dropped 0.08% from 24 hours ago to $70,3684. At the same time, the price of Ethereum (ETH) fell 0.29% to $2046.47; the price of Ripple (XRP) fell 0.68% to $1.04.

According to data compiled by Woofun AI, a total of about $60.24 million of Bitcoin positions were closed in the past 24 hours. Of these, about 28.6%, or $15.52 million, were long positions, while about 71.4%, or $38.78 million, were short positions. Across the market, a total of approximately $246.79 million worth of positions were closed. In the US stock market, artificial intelligence-related companies drove the upward momentum of the market, and the NASDAQ 100 index rose 2.3%; cloud computing company CoreWeave (CRWV.US)'s stock price rose sharply by 25% because its performance exceeded expectations and raised its full-year performance expectations.

Nvidia (NVDA.US) shares also rose 2.9%, ending two consecutive days of decline. In contrast, Bitcoin has failed to keep up with the upward trend of technology stocks. Due to the 0.4% month-on-month increase in the US CPI in October, which exceeded market expectations. Coupled with the sharp rise in interest rates on treasury bonds, the market's willingness to invest in risky assets weakened. Interest rates on 10-year US Treasury bonds once rose to 5.02%. This is the first time since the 29th of last month that they have broken through the 5% mark, while interest rates on 30-year treasury bonds have risen to 5.378%. The market expects the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise the benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points next month, but others think it is possible to raise it by 0.5 percentage points.

Peter Bukbar, chief investment officer of OnePoint BFG Wealth Partners, analyzed that the rise in interest rates on US Treasury bonds reflects the possibility that the Federal Reserve will further tighten its policy. Currently, the bond market already reflects the possibility of next month's interest rate hike and the possibility of another rate hike in January next year. Factors hindering Bitcoin's price recovery also include outflows from spot ETFs — in Bitcoin spot ETFs, there was a net outflow of 95 million dollars over the past 10 days, and capital outflows have occurred for 4 consecutive trading days.

The supply of stablecoins reflecting market liquidity is also declining. The market value of USDT, a stablecoin linked to the US dollar, has shrunk by $6.6 billion in the last 60 days, the biggest drop since statistics on related data began in 2022. The Coinbase (COIN.US) premium, which reflects US investment demand, has also been negative for 30 consecutive days. Short-term investors' loss pressure is also increasing. Currently, the price of Bitcoin is lower than the average purchase price of short-term holders who bought within 155 days, which is around $75,700. According to data, in the past 10 days, these short-term holders have transferred more than 47,000 bitcoins out of the exchange due to book losses. If these bitcoins are actually sold, it will put further downward pressure on the price.

On the technical side, Bitcoin also failed to find a clear direction of movement between major moving averages. Its 21-week simple moving average is $70,3078, and its 50-week simple moving average is $75,492. Since the current price is between these two moving averages, which direction the price will develop in the future has become the focus of market attention. Bitcoin's 200-week moving average calculated by CryptoQuant is also around $73,200. The agency believes that this price range is a key basis for determining the short-term correction trend and whether there will be a further decline. Analysts believe that in order to resume the upward trend, Bitcoin needs to break through the $76,400 level corresponding to the 365-week moving average again. Digital asset analysis agency BRN believes that for Bitcoin to achieve a continuous rebound, what is needed is not a temporary slowdown in selling pressure, but the entry of real new purchases. Although capital outflows from spot ETFs are declining, there is still uncertainty about whether Bitcoin can actually rebound due to declining stablecoin supply and US investment demand.