CoreWeave Is No Lehman, One Bull Says — That’s Plain ‘Fearmongering’

CoreWeave, Inc. (NASDAQ:CRWV) is growing fast enough to strengthen its bullish case, but its debt-heavy expansion continues to invite comparisons with the financial crisis. One Wall Street bull thinks those fears are overblown, arguing that improving profitability, hyperscaler-backed financing and surging AI demand make the comparison with Lehman Brothers misplaced.

Paul Meeks, head of technology research at Freedom Capital Markets, said CoreWeave’s third-quarter results reinforced his bullish thesis, even as the stock’s steep decline and concerns over its financing model have made him a lonely voice on Wall Street.

“We’ve been awfully lonely as the seemingly only bull on this neocloud,” Meeks wrote in his quarterly review of CoreWeave.

CoreWeave’s Margins Are Changing the Debt Narrative

The company reported third-quarter revenue of $3.66 billion, up 168% year over year and ahead of the $3.54 billion expected by Meeks and Wall Street. But the more important signal, according to the analyst, was profitability.

Adjusted EBITDA margin came in at 61.6%, beating Meeks’ 59.5% estimate and the Street’s 58.1% forecast. The company also raised its full-year 2026 revenue and adjusted operating income guidance.

Meeks expects CoreWeave to generate $13.15 billion in revenue this year, 2.6 times its 2025 sales, followed by another doubling to $26.15 billion in 2027. The company expects to at least double its EBITDA dollars next year.

It has also disclosed a path to adjusted net income breakeven in the second half of 2027, followed by full-year profitability in 2028.

For investors worried about whether CoreWeave can sustain its massive infrastructure spending, improving margins could be an important part of the answer.

The Lehman Comparison Meets a Different Kind of Collateral

Meeks recounted an exchange at Flex’s Innovation Day in Austin, Texas, where an experienced portfolio manager compared CoreWeave with Lehman Brothers before its 2008 collapse, arguing that neocloud borrowing and collateralization resembled subprime mortgage financing before the financial crisis.

Meeks called the episode an illustration of the “CRWV fearmongering,” while acknowledging that the company must still prove it will not meet the same fate.

His central argument rests on how CoreWeave finances its expansion. The company expects to fund essentially all its capital expenditure through delayed-draw term loan facilities (DDTLs) for at least the next year. These financing arrangements are backed by hyperscaler customers’ cash flows and investment-grade credit ratings. More than 75% of its expected 2027 capital expenditure is earmarked for building capacity for investment-grade customers.

A forthcoming DDTL financing, expected to carry a 7% to 7.5% yield, could offer investors another test of whether that funding model remains viable.

Strong AI Demand Doesn’t Eliminate Financing Risk

Joe Tigay, portfolio manager of the Rational Equity Armor Fund, said the results reinforce that demand for AI computing remains substantial, with revenue growth, an expanding backlog and new capacity coming online.

But he cautioned that strong execution does not eliminate financing risk. Higher 10-year Treasury yields can make future fixed-rate borrowing more expensive, potentially leaving less value for shareholders even if customer demand remains robust.

That distinction matters. CoreWeave now has 1.7 gigawatts of active power and plans to reach 1.85 gigawatts by year-end. Yet its 2026 capital expenditure guidance now stands at $37 billion to $39 billion, narrowed from $35 billion to $39 billion.

For investors, the debate is no longer simply whether AI demand exists. It is whether CoreWeave can convert that demand into profitable growth without allowing the cost of financing its expansion to overwhelm shareholder returns.

Meeks is betting it can, but the upcoming debt financing, 2027 profitability target and pace of capacity additions will be critical tests of that conviction.

CRWV Price Action: CoreWeave shares were up 23.55% at $60.21 at the time of publication Wednesday, according to Benzinga Pro data.

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