Nokia's Rebound Faces One Big Test Before the End of 2026

Will Nokia (NYSE:NOK) close at or above $9.39, the October 29 rebound high identified by TradingKey’s Alan Long, by December 31, 2026? The American depositary receipts (ADRs) traded at $8.41 Wednesday morning, up 2% on the session. Long noted the shares plunged 9.7% on November 5 to a recent low of $7.36, and they then rose for three straight sessions.

Price Levels That Settle the Call

Long’s November 11 TradingKey chart analysis places key resistance near $8.40. Resistance is a price where sellers have repeatedly stopped rallies. In Long’s reading, a clean break above it opens a run toward $9.39, with the next resistance at $9.65. Support is the opposite: a floor where buyers have stepped in before. Long puts that zone between $7.90 and $8.00. Moving averages, which track a stock’s average closing price over a set number of days, help traders judge trend direction. A price holding above them signals that buyers have control.

Three Reasons the Rebound Extends 1. Compounding AI Demand

Nokia reported that third-quarter AI and cloud revenue rose 123% year over year. Nokia also said order intake in the segment climbed 118% to €1.5 billion. Management said demand exceeds supply in both Optical and IP Networks, and it guided Q4 net sales to rise 20% to 24% sequentially. It also expects full-year comparable operating profit above the midpoint of its €2.1 billion to €2.6 billion outlook.

2. Upgraded Balance Sheet

Moody’s raised Nokia’s long-term rating to investment-grade Baa3 from Ba1, with a positive outlook. An investment-grade rating means a major agency judges default risk to be low. That cuts borrowing costs and widens the pool of conservative funds that can own the company’s debt, both of which matter for an income-focused holder. Nokia ended Q3 with net cash of €2.6 billion.

3. Stabilizing AI Trade

The Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) rose 1.6% in its latest session, even though it remains down 8.7% over the past month. If AI hardware sentiment firms up, the strongest networking suppliers stand to gain first.

What Would Break This Prediction

Nokia remains down 14.6% over the past month. On October 22, the stock fell 14.8% despite a handy earnings beat driven by data center demand. In that same week, though, it rebounded 18.2%. A close below Long’s $7.90 support floor falsifies this call, and his analysis flags a possible test of $7.00 after such a break. A breakdown like that would signal that the market wants proof of the Q4 numbers first. Even so, record AI orders, an investment-grade balance sheet, and explicit guidance for results above the midpoint could put Nokia back at Long’s $9.39 high before the year ends.