Zhitong Hong Kong Stock Exchange Unravels | The Logic of the Explosion of AI Technology Hardware White Pigeon Online (02672) plummeted by more than 72%

[Anatomy Dashboard]

Technology, which has been adjusted for a long time, is in full swing today. Since the index content is too low, not only did it not contribute to the index, but instead drew some blood, the Hang Seng Index fell 0.98%.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced on Tuesday, November 10, that the October CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month, lower than the 0.6% increase in September, but higher than the 0.3% expected by economists; the core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month and remained flat in September, higher than market expectations of 0.2%. This is the third month in a row that overall CPI has surpassed Wall Street expectations, and the core CPI has also risen 0.3% month-on-month for the third month. The Federal Reserve's interest rate hike in December has been settled. The key is to look at the magnitude. There are already voices saying that the interest rate will be raised by 50 basis points.

Generally speaking, interest rate hikes are bad for tech stocks. But the main contradiction right now is that technology stocks have fallen so badly. Therefore, if there is a Mars, it is easy to ignite.

According to foreign media reports, Microsoft has been pressuring the Trump administration to abandon plans to ban the import of optical transceivers used in artificial intelligence (AI) data centers from China. The reason is that US cloud vendors have purchased a large number of AI chips, but without optical modules, these chips cannot be connected and can only be left idle; the ban may “almost stop” data center construction. Microsoft declined to comment. Neither the White House nor the FCC immediately responded to requests for comment. Remember that in August of this year, after the news that the US government plans to restrict optical modules in relevant countries was first revealed, it triggered continuous adjustments in the computing power hardware sector in the global market. Now the market doesn't care whether this will be approved or not; let's talk about it first.

Objectively speaking, both US stocks and A-share technology stocks have incentives to rebound. For example, the US stock company Nvidia, Hwang In-hoon is being investigated, and it has been falling continuously for the past few days. It's definitely not OK for the general leader to fall like this. If you don't pull it up, you won't have a good time. This is not just an investment bank saying: Nvidia stock is “ridiculously cheap,” the chipmaker's forward price-earnings ratio has dropped below 10 times, and a good time to buy it has arrived. Currently, it has risen by more than 5% before the market.

Looking at it again, Anthropic is also about to go public. If technology stocks continue to be sluggish, how can they raise money. The company revealed during the IPO roadshow that while revenue has increased more than 45 times in the past six quarters, computing power costs have only increased 10 times, and gross margin has increased to more than 85%. However, the company does not plan to reduce investment; instead, it continues to bet heavily on computing power and data centers, targeting the $40 trillion knowledge job market. Anthropic even proposed a long-term adjusted operating margin of more than 35%. As a direct result, investors' enthusiasm for subscription is high. Anthropic underwriters are already considering raising the issuance price of their IPOs. It is expected to raise Anthropic's issuance price above the $70-78 range announced in Tuesday's prospectus filing documents, and the target valuation may be pushed up to $1.5 trillion or more. Pushing it up a little bit is of course a good thing. In terms of valuation, everyone is following suit. The smart spectrum (02513) mentioned yesterday plans to buy back up to HK$4 billion for H shares and increase by more than 3% today; MINIMAX-W (00100) recently officially released MiniMax H3-Image and opened weights. It can generate a 4096 x 4096 pixel, about 16 MP (4K) high-resolution image within 10 seconds. At the same time, it presents rich and realistic details, and has excellent instruction compliance and multi-reference image understanding Ability increased by more than 4%.

The above factors combined to drive a rebound in AI technology hardware across the board. Naturally, the most immediate stimulus was optical modules. This sector also fell the hardest. Optical module leaders generally pulled back by more than 60% in the early stages, and the chips were fully cleared. Bernstein expects Nvidia's eco-optical communication market to reach 46.8 billion US dollars in 2028, an increase of 91% over 2027; China Mobile's total procurement volume in 2027 will exceed 500 billion yuan. Cambridge Technology (06166) revealed the investor relations activity record table last night, saying that it had formed a monthly production capacity of about 1 million high-speed optical modules at the beginning of September, and plans to expand production capacity to at least 10 million units by the end of 2027, and dispelled the rumor that “big North American customers cut orders”. Today, it has surged more than 23%; Zhongji Xuchuang (03308) revealed that orders from major customers will basically cover the whole of 2027. Key customers have given guidelines for 2028, an increase of nearly 14%.

PCBs are also following up. According to Prismark data, the output value growth rates of multi-layer boards, HDI, and packaging substrates with 18 layers or more are expected to be 79%, 23%, and 28.8% respectively in 2026, which is far higher than the single-digit growth of the industry as a whole. Goldman Sachs estimates that demand for AI servers CCL will increase from 42 million copies in 2026 to 131 million copies in 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of 77%. According to Xinxing data, the PCB carrier board material gap was about 20% in 2027, and supply chain production expansion capacity became the key to industrial development. Jingwang Electronics (03228), Dingtai Hi-Tech (01377), Shenghong Technology (02476), and Robotec (03757) all increased by more than 10%. Haiguang Core Positive (01191), which focuses on AI silicon optical interconnection, rose more than 14%. The long flight in the direction of optical cables (06869) increased by more than 13%. The above are all core varieties.

The current view on technology stocks is the need for a sharp decline and rebound. Whether it can continue to depend on: 1. The official statement on US export control policies; 2. The latest capital expenditure guidelines for North American cloud vendors; and 3. Progress in certification of 1.6T products and overseas customers. Of course, the trend of US technology stocks is also quite critical.

The strengthening of AI technology and hardware naturally suppresses the software category. Both are seesaw effects. White Pigeon Online (02672), which has been in the spotlight recently, did not expect a sudden dive near 15:00, and the closing session plummeted 72%. In fact, this situation is also quite common in Hong Kong stocks. Often, they rise all the way up, with almost no adjustments. After reaching a certain high point, they will cash out, and if not accepted, it will trigger chain sell-offs. For example, leveraged funds will automatically close positions. Looking at it for the time being, I haven't seen any disadvantages for the company. Its collapse led to the weakening of all relevant intelligence entities.

Anthropic's engineer Felix used Fable5.2 and spent 8 hours +$550 to get to the game. Xindong (02400) has an AI game creation tool called TapMaker, which supports API calls to external models, and can directly launch ads on its platform TapTap to create a closed loop; the domestic 3A game “Shadow Blade Zero” officially announced that it was released and sold over 4 million copies in 72 hours, and TapTap PC and others undertook PC distribution. From November 21 to December 27, the second phase of the partnership between Xindong Town and My Little Pony will be launched. According to previous Sensor Tower data, the “My Little Pony” IP linkage and Valentine's Day campaign have driven overseas revenue of more than 2.5 million US dollars in a single day. Today's increase is over 4%.

A new giant has also joined the AI skit. According to media reports, JD's closed beta independent skit product “JD Chase Drama Welfare Club” uses a free model. The core gameplay is “watch the drama to receive benefits, buy the same model directly from the drama, and ship it from JD.” This idea was very well captured. The product was embedded directly into the skit, which is a win-win pattern. Overall, it is a positive stimulus for the skit industry. Yesterday's section focused on reading literature group (00772) continued to rise, while copyright leader Fubo Group (03738) rose more than 4%.

[Section Focus]

According to the approval information for domestic online games released by the State Press and Publication Administration for October 2026, a total of 195 games passed the review in October, including 183 Chinese online games and 12 imported online games. As of October, 1,766 editions have been approved since 2026, including 1,708 domestic games and 58 imported games. Furthermore, according to data released by the Game Industry Committee of the China Sound and Digital Association, in the third quarter of 2026, the actual sales revenue of the Chinese domestic game market was 92,522 billion yuan, up 1.36% from the previous month and 5.11% from the previous year.

AI-enabled game equality is a major driving force. Combined with the AI skit boom, game stocks are also expected to be driven. The main types of Hong Kong stocks are: Tencent (00700), NetEase (09999), Xindong (02400), Jinshan Software (03888), Bibili-W (09626), and Playback (09890).

[Individual Stock Mining]

China Merchants Port (00144): Continued high growth rate of overseas container volume drives increased profitability

Recently, China Merchants Port signed more than HK$635 million related structured lease agreements covering 22 Hambantota container equipment. The company achieved revenue of 13.541 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2026, up 6.11% year on year; in the third quarter, it achieved operating income of 4.593 billion yuan, up 6.98% year on year; in the first three quarters, net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 4.169 billion yuan, up 9.51% year on year; of these, net profit for the third quarter was 1,388 billion yuan, up 17.60% year on year.

Comment: The company's main port business profits are better than expected, and equity throughput is among the highest in the world. Many overseas terminals are regional transit hubs, and channel nodes with scarce card slots. The gross margin of overseas business is significantly higher than that of domestic business (57.4%), which is the core gripper of profit. Cash flow was abundant and growing healthily. 1H26's cash flow from operating activities increased 15% at the same time as operating profit. The revenue growth rate of the company's port sector was higher than the growth rate of container volume at the holding terminal (+13.2% vs. +3.5%). Mainly due to the company's increased terminal rate and optimization of the container volume structure, the terminal's single box revenue increased year-on-year. The autonomous and controllable terminal operating system has been exported to 38 terminals in 7 countries. It is equipped with AI operation and maintenance, automated terminal transformation to reduce costs and increase efficiency. It is one of the few domestic operators that can export port technology overseas. Overseas is the main line of high growth, and the growth rate of overseas containers continues to be higher than domestic: Turkey's Kumport, Togo LCT, and Brazil's TCP are growing at a high rate; Turkey's Kumport has secured long-term cargo volume contracts; Togo LCT is one of the few terminals in West Africa that can pick up 24,000 TEU ships, and its transit position is stable; the Brazilian Vast project has been added to improve the Latin American landscape.

The home port of the Greater Bay Area has a stable basic market. The foreign trade share of the western port area of Shenzhen has led the Greater Bay Area for a long time, and the throughput continues to reach new highs. It is the ballast stone for domestic profits and undertakes foreign trade logistics along the Belt and Road Initiative and RCEP. The company's volume of goods is expected to maintain good growth, and it is optimistic that the company will further improve profitability through lean operations. Benefiting from factors such as increased volume of AI-related products, accelerated exports of high-end Chinese manufacturing, and economic growth in emerging markets, the company's terminal cargo volume is expected to continue to grow. On the price side, the company's overseas terminal charges are expected to continue to increase, and single box revenue is expected to continue to grow due to the optimization of the container volume structure. Furthermore, I am optimistic that the company will continue to reduce costs and expenses by optimizing port operation processes, increasing the automation ratio and cost control, etc., to drive an increase in profitability.