US stock outlook | Futures of the three major stock indexes soared after CoreWeave's results, chip stocks, and optical communications stocks rose before the market

Pre-market market trends

1. On November 11 (Wednesday), the futures of the three major US stock indexes rose sharply before the US stock market. As of press release, Dow futures were up 0.13%, S&P 500 futures were up 0.87%, and NASDAQ futures were up 1.93%.

2. As of press release, the German DAX index rose 0.45%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.33%, the French CAC40 index rose 0.25%, and the European Stoxx 50 index rose 0.58%.

3. As of press release, WTI crude oil rose 0.80% to $86.73 per barrel. Brent crude rose 1.46% to $92.83 per barrel.

Market news

US inflation is “high and not going away”! Goldman Sachs took the lead: the Fed's interest rate hike cycle is not over yet, and another 25 basis points may be added in March next year. The higher-than-expected US CPI data for October released on Tuesday prompted Goldman Sachs to adjust its previous forecast that the current round of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle will end in December. The Wall Street financial giant now predicts that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by another 25 basis points in March next year. Goldman Sachs is the first agency in the industry to adjust forecasts. Goldman Sachs believes that compared to January next year, it is more likely that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again in March next year. The forecast predicts that inflation will fall somewhat before the end of this year, but as seasonal price pressure reappears early next year, and costs remain high, inflation is likely to rise again. David Mericle, chief US economist at Goldman Sachs, said, “By the time of the March meeting next year, and possibly even the January meeting, the energy shock may have basically passed. But we doubt that recent inflation data will prompt most members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to signal a third rate hike in the bitmap released in December.”

At a time when technology stocks fluctuate sharply, hedge fund bosses warn that crowded “decentralized transactions” may become an “amplifier” of market fluctuations. At a time when global technology stocks are shaking violently, a popular Wall Street trade that relies on individual stock differentiation to profit is facing the risk of the market rescheduling fluctuation. Will Bartlett, CEO of Parallax Volatility Advisers, warned that Equity Dispersion Trade (Equity Dispersion Trade) has become a “time bomb.” He said, “Decentralized trading is a time bomb that is counting down the clock. It really exploded; it was only a matter of time.” The top Wall Street hedge fund manager said investors who are enjoying the golden age of decentralized stock trading should be prepared to deal with possible losses in the event of a sudden shift in the market.

Bank of America throws cold water: Don't expect the S&P 500 in 2027; it is the most crowded deal in the world. Bank of America analysts believe that in 2027, the S&P 500 index may be difficult to support the market to go long. Savita Subramanian, head of US equities and quantitative strategy at Bank of America, said on the program: “We are not particularly optimistic about this index. I think the index itself has some risks. Another thing that worries me is that in the past 30 or 40 years, the S&P index has recorded a net inflow of capital every year, and we have never experienced a market environment where there is a net outflow of capital from the index. So I have some concerns about this, because investors are now quite saturated with stocks in all kinds of assets. Look at individual investors, look at asset owners, what is the most crowded stock symbol in the world? It's the S&P 500.”

The core CPI has surpassed expectations, and the Federal Reserve's “hawk voice” is raging! The 2027 FOMC voting committee bluntly stated that inflation is hot. The core US CPI inflation data for October once again exceeded the market's unanimous expectations, and Federal Reserve officials seem to be losing patience that “the pressure to raise prices will subside by itself.” In an interview on November 10, 2027 FOMC voting committee and Chicago Federal Reserve Chairman Austin Goulsby described the latest inflation report as “disturbing; it can almost be said that overheated inflation is very unsettling.” What he is most worried about is that tariffs and energy shocks have been slow to fully subside, and service inflation continues to be high. However, he did not clearly support the 50 basis point rate hike in December, but instead emphasized that no policy options could be ruled out ahead of time.

Refuting Waller's faster tightening theory? Philadelphia Federal Reserve Chairman: Core inflation is still high, but gradual interest rate hikes can leave time for the market and policymakers. Philadelphia Federal Reserve Chairman Anna Paulson said she supports a gradual increase in interest rates. At the same time, she mentioned that upward pressure on wages is still limited, and inflation expectations are still in line with the central bank's 2% inflation target. “For now, it is appropriate to continue to gradually tighten policy,” Paulson said at an event organized by the Federal Reserve in Philadelphia on Tuesday. “If inflation expectations rise, wage pressure intensifies, or core inflation rises further, I would like to act more quickly,” she added. “But right now, I'm not observing such signs.” “Skipping a rate hike is just adjusting the pace of the rate hike, not a shift. It is likely that there is still room for austerity in the future. However, when conditions permit, I prefer gradual tightening,” Paulson further explained. Slowing down the pace of interest rate hikes can allow time for households, businesses, and the financial sector to cushion adjustments, and also make it easier for policy makers to continuously evaluate economic data.

Individual stock news

Chip stocks and optical communication stocks generally rose before the market. Before the US stock market on Wednesday, as of press release, SK Hynix (SKHY.US) and SanDisk (SNDK.US) rose more than 8%, Seagate (STX.US) and Western Digital (WDC.US) rose more than 7%, AMD (AMD.US) and Intel (INTC.US) rose more than 6%, Nvidia (NVDA.US) and Broadcom (AVGO.US) rose more than 3%; Lumentum (LITE.US) rose more than 3%; Lumentum (LITE.US) Do Technology (CRDO.US) and Coherent (COHR.US) rose nearly 9%, Mwell Technology (MRVL.US) rose more than 8%, and Astera Labs (ALAB.US) and Corning (GLW.US) rose more than 7%, and Nokia (NOK.US) rose nearly 4%.

Nvidia's pre-market rebound! “Big Short” Bury is optimistic about short-term trading opportunities, but warns that the long-term decline in competitive advantage may be inevitable. Concerns surrounding Hwang In-hoon's personal turmoil have caused Nvidia to have a cumulative decline of more than 9% since this week, but it rose nearly 5% before the market on Wednesday, recovering part of the decline. Nvidia's recent stock price pullback has drawn Michael Berry's attention, although he remains wary of investing in Nvidia in the long term. The investor, famous for accurately predicting the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, believes that Nvidia may have trading opportunities in the short term, adding that the US chip giant is “an excellent deal,” but he also expects that Nvidia's competitive advantage will gradually weaken in the next five years. Burry said, “Judging from the current price, I'm not planning to use it as a long-term position. But I think the entire market will soon feel like this is a great deal.” He doesn't expect the controversy surrounding CEO Hwang In-hoon to cause much damage to Nvidia's business. His bigger concern is how long the chipmaker will be able to maintain its competitive advantage.

CoreWeave (CRWV.US) Q3 revenue surged 168% year over year, raising full-year revenue guidance. Financial reports show that, benefiting from continued growth in demand for AI computing power, CoreWeave's third-quarter revenue was US$3,661 billion, up 168% year on year and 42% month on month, better than market expectations of US$3.56 billion. In GAAP terms, net loss for the third quarter was US$709 million, net loss for the same period last year was US$110 million, and net loss for the previous quarter was US$626 million. The diluted loss of $1.27 per share was higher than $0.22 in the same period last year, but better than the market expected loss of $1.46 per share. CoreWeave revealed that by the end of the third quarter, the company's total revenue backlog of orders reached US$132.5 billion, an increase of 138% over US$55.6 billion in the same period last year. Of these, approximately 36% of revenue backlog orders are expected to confirm revenue within the next 24 months, 38% are expected to be confirmed in the 25th to 48th month, and the remaining 26% are expected to be confirmed after 48 months. Looking ahead to the full year, CoreWeave expects 2026 revenue to reach 13 billion to 13.3 billion US dollars, higher than the previous high revenue forecast of 13.2 billion US dollars. The company raised its annual revenue guidelines, showing that although AI data center construction faces challenges such as rising financing costs and project delays, the market demand for AI computing power is still strong. As of press release, CoreWeave's US stocks surged more than 12% in the premarket on Wednesday, its competitor Nebius (NBIS.US) rose more than 11%, and Iren (IREN.US) rose nearly 7%.

Firefly Aerospace (FLY.US)'s third-quarter revenue surged 259%, and the backlog of orders reached a record $1.7 billion, but adjusted EBITDA losses increased at the same time. Space and defense technology company Firefly Aerospace had third-quarter revenue of US$117.7 million, up 259% year on year; gross profit of US$25.3 million, gross margin of about 22.9%. However, the expenditure side expanded faster: R&D expenses of US$76 million and sales and management expenses of US$50.9 million, which together far exceeded the gross profit scale, with operating losses of US$101.6 million during the quarter. Non-GAAP net loss of US$75.4 million (loss of $0.45 per share, better than market expectations of $0.60); adjusted EBITDA was a loss of US$69.5 million, an increase from US$46.3 million in the same period last year. The company's backlog of orders reached 1.7 billion US dollars at the end of the third quarter, a record (1.5 billion US dollars at the end of the previous quarter). The market is increasingly strict about pricing its “high growth, high cost” model.

Petrobras (PBR.US) oil and gas production set a record in Q3. Adjusted net profit increased 78% year over year, raising annual production and capital expenditure guidelines. According to financial reports, Petrobras's sales revenue for the quarter was US$32.962 billion, up 40.4% year on year; net profit (back to mother) was US$7.740 billion, up 28.4% year on year; net profit after excluding one-time projects was US$9.316 billion, up 78.0% year on year. Adjusted EBITDA (excluding one-time items) reached US$18.394 billion, an increase of 53.9% year over year. Operating cash flow was US$12.026 billion and free cash flow was US$6.618 billion, up 22% and 33.2% year over year, respectively. The core support for the performance comes from record production. The company drastically raised its annual guidance: production guidance was raised from 3.1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day at the beginning of the year to 33-3.4 million barrels; capital expenditure (portfolio of assets under construction) was raised from US$19.4 billion to US$24-25.5 billion (cash caliber increased from 16.9 billion to US$210-22 billion); operating cash flow was raised from US$35 billion to US$45-50 billion; and lease payments were raised from 10 billion to US$11.5 billion.

Performance Forecast

Thursday pre-market: Nebius (NBIS.US)