Berenberg Keeps Novartis at Hold Amid 'Stretched' Valuation Premium, Upcoming Patent Expirations

03:30 AM EST, 11/11/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Berenberg maintained its hold rating for Novartis (NOVN.SW), noting the Swiss drugmaker's "stretched" valuation premium and pressures from the looming loss of exclusivity involving key patents ahead of an upcoming management update. "Novartis' surprisingly robust share price performance ytd belies the recent disappointing late-stage pipeline readouts. Sales growth into 2027 is undeniably comfortable, Berenberg and consensus forecast 7% CER, but the patent expiry-led slowdown by the end of the decade is increasingly moving into focus. Expectations into the Meet Novartis Management event are high and the valuation premium is stretched, in our view," according to a Wednesday note. Analysts expect Novartis to roll its guidance timeline forward to full-year 2031 at the event, while framing its expected outlook into the middle of the 2030s. Against this backdrop, Berenberg forecasts a "sharp" 7% sales drop in 2032 driven by patent expiries for Cosentyx, Kisqali and Kesimpta. The report also noted "fewer" pipeline catalysts ahead, starting with phase 3 remibrutinib data in hidradenitis suppurativa by the end of 2026 and followed by late-stage readouts for ianalumab in lupus in the first half of 2027 and abelacimab in thrombosis in the latter half. The research firm also left the stock's price target unchanged at 105 francs, while making upward revisions to its sales, EBIT and EPS estimates for 2026 through 2028.