Crypto revenue falls short, predicts market surge more than 6 times: Robinhood (HOOD.US) breaks

According to Woofun AI, Robinhood's (HOOD.US) third-quarter earnings report released on October 27 revealed a profound transformation of its business structure. Although traditional cryptocurrency trading revenue has shrunk drastically due to declining market activity, the company hedged the risks of a single business cycle through Robinhood Chain infrastructure and forecasting the explosive growth of the market, showing a clear path of development from a simple trading platform to a diversified financial ecosystem.

The cyclical fluctuations in the traditional crypto business were fully reflected in the current quarter's earnings report. Affected by low trading activity, Robinhood's cryptocurrency trading revenue fell 55% year over year to just $120 million. Excluding the $26 million in additional revenue brought by Robinhood Chain, the actual revenue of its core crypto trading business was only $94 million, down 6% from the previous month.

This data confirms the high sensitivity of retail crypto transactions to price fluctuations. However, Robinhood Chain performed well in the first quarter after the launch of the main network on July 1, processing more than $80 billion in decentralized exchange transactions and generating more than $50 million in on-chain fees. Of this, about $26 million was confirmed as the company's crypto revenue, and most of the rest belonged to Arbitrum DAO's revenue sharing and on-chain application layer.

According to data compiled by Woofun AI, this infrastructure-level breakthrough indicates that the company is trying to get rid of a single dependency on users to buy and sell cryptocurrencies and instead obtain more stable ecological benefits by building an underlying protocol. This shift from “channel fees” to “infrastructure fees” provides investors with a deeper entrance to participate in tokenized assets and decentralized transactions, significantly reducing the vulnerability of the business to short-term market sentiment.

At the same time, forecasting the market has become another major engine driving the company's growth. In the third quarter, event contract revenue reached US$173 million, an increase of more than six times over the previous year, even exceeding the revenue from stock trading. Strong performance in this sector enabled Robinhood's total transaction-based revenue to achieve a 19% year-on-year increase, effectively offsetting the decline in the crypto business. The forecasting market extends the company's core positioning — making it easy for retail investors to participate in financial markets — to real-world events such as sporting events and political events, opening up a new source of revenue.

Looking at financial fundamentals, as of 4 p.m. EST on November 10, 2026, HOOD's stock price was $81.33, down 2.39% on the day, fluctuating between $79.96 and $83.32. The company's market capitalization reached $73.24 billion, and the 52-week stock price fluctuation range was $63.52 to $139.75, with a trading volume of 13.5 million shares.

Despite facing the double risk of the cyclicality of the crypto market and predicting market regulatory uncertainty, Wall Street analysts remain optimistic about Robinhood's prospects. Of the 32 analysts covering the stock, 26 gave a “buy” or “strong buy” rating, with an average price target of around $131.

However, the company's current price-earnings ratio (TTM) is about 39.7 times, and valuations are not cheap. Whether emerging businesses can continue to support this premium has become a key variable. Following the digitization of traditional brokerage firms, this is an important restructuring of the traditional financial model of Web3 native business.