Anthropic (ANT.US) sprint to IPO with a trillion valuation, venture capitalists warn that the AI market may peak

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Jack Selby (Jack Selby), head of venture capital agency Copper Sky, said on Wednesday that Anthropic PBC (ANT.US)'s major initial public offering (IPO) may mark the peak of the artificial intelligence (AI) market and may trigger a chain pullback after the initial ban period ends.

The Claude chatbot developer is seeking to raise around $100 billion in total through IPOs, private placements, and potential over-allotment options. According to people familiar with the matter, Anthropic underwriters have said they expect to raise the issue price above the $70 to $78 range announced in the early Tuesday document, which may push the valuation target to $1.5 trillion or more in the next few days. Anthropic is expected to be officially listed and traded next week.

Despite early signs of strong market demand for this historic release, and reports that the distribution scale may expand, Selby is skeptical.

“If Anthropic's IPO does not perform well, then it will surely become a very important player in the sharp correction of the AI market,” said Selby, who is also managing partner in the Peter Thiel family office. “If the IPO of this most high-profile AI company falls far short of the expected valuation, think about how much its stock price will drop after the ban period ends.”

Selby has been bearish on AI trading for a long time. More than a year ago, he called the frenzy surrounding the industry the biggest bubble in the history of private tech investment. He once again questioned the claim that AI needs are limitless, and pointed out that Chinese models such as DeepSeek are about six months behind, posing another threat to Anthropic.

“If their technology is six or nine months behind Anthropic, what are the unique advantages of Anthropic's technology that can make it better, or does its technology have national security interests?” he said.

As to whether he will invest in Asian AI deals, Selby said that if he can, he will “do a lot more on Chinese AI.” He said Anthropic cannot claim that all of its businesses require an American model because most current usage scenarios are general-purpose requirements, which leaves room for arbitrage.

He warned that the expiration of Anthropologie's ban could put a particularly heavy strain on the stock price. He said that SoftBank Group and Oracle (ORCL.US) are like canaries in a coal mine, which is an early warning sign. Among them, Oracle is riskier due to its high debt ratio. For investors who must hold AI assets, he recommended choosing Google, a subsidiary of Alphabet (GOOGL.US).

Selby said that Anthropic's revenue structure is one reason for its skepticism: more than 80% of revenue is non-recurring revenue, and it is vulnerable to competitors' improved technology. He said it would be a major concern if the competitor erased the six-month or nine-month lead; he added that capital expenditure is huge because data, energy, data centers and chips are all expensive investments, and interest rates are no longer close to zero.

“Its capital expenditure intensity is too high,” Selby said. “It's a real business, but it's still in its early stages, and the idea that it's a trillion-dollar business seems extremely far-fetched.”